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Real estate

Analyses of the situation in the construction sector and studies on the real-estate market both in Germany as a whole and in selected centres in Germany and abroad.

64 Documents
    
December 8, 2023

Outlook 2024: The year of disenchantment?

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Heike Mai, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
The external environment as well as monetary and fiscal policy should provide strong headwinds. Sentiment will likely be dragged lower by the increasingly evident structural problems. We anticipate a modest recession during the winter half to be followed by a gradual recovery from spring onwards. We expect the government to survive the internal quarrels with respect to the 2024 budget, following the constitutional court ruling. Debt brake reform is unlikely in the short run. A cross-party consensus for a Transformation Fund 2.0 might emerge before September regional elections. [more]
1
October 20, 2023

Smart Cities: Investing in the urban future

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Digital, Real estate
Analyst:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Moebert
Current advances in AI and a media-savvy generation - in combination with the Internet of Things, edge computing and 5G - provide the opportunity to rethink smart city models such as City 5.0 and soft city. We discuss some use cases – and the trade-offs to be resolved – that arise from connecting and automating a city. Besides digital platforms – now augmented by AI –, smart city market segments such as smart buildings, digital energy and environmental solutions are expected to grow strongly in the coming years. Since not all of these are likely to be publicly funded, interesting investment opportunities do arise to create more efficient, sustainable, and livable urban spaces. [more]
2
September 29, 2023

Germany’s competitiveness between pioneer and laggard

Region:
Germany
Talking Point
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert, Julius Schumann
Once again, some see Germany as the “sick man of Europe”. This week, the 2023 ranking of the Global Innovation Index is released with Germany at rank 8, again. It does not only provide a good measure for innovation but also gives important insights into a country’s competitiveness. Indeed, there are numerous challenges especially with respect to digitalization and demographics. But Germany is also still a powerhouse in providing excellent R&D. [more]
3
July 25, 2023

"Midterm review" – reforms to tackle the new growth challenge

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
Germany’s growth is under pressure from renewed cyclical and structural headwinds. In this edition of Focus Germany we introduce our new Nowcast Model for German GDP, predicting that the German economy should have expanded in Q2, but that risks for activity in H2 are increasing. We take the summer break in Berlin as an opportunity for a midterm review of the traffic-light coalition’s work. In a historic flashback we revisit the challenges Germany was facing when the Economist called it the sick man of the euro and which policy measures transformed the country into an Economic superstar a decade later. We find interesting parallels to today’s situation. [more]
5
April 21, 2023

2023 Housing market outlook: Price dip and interest rate peak ahead. Significantly higher prices likely in the long term. Refurbishment costs are taken into account

Region:
Germany
Germany Monitor
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
The boom is over. Five key arguments lead us to expect only a price dip. Negative real interest rates, inflation protection through real estate, rising rental growth and most importantly a high fundamental supply shortage. In addition, real house prices have already fallen very sharply due to the surge in inflation. CO2 emissions from buildings are increasingly coming into focus. Prices have started to diverge between properties with low and high emissions. This divergence is likely to increase. [more]
7
March 9, 2023

The German economy – one year after

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
The German economy – one year after. With surprisingly strong hard data for January, chances are rising that GDP might be saved from another decline in Q1. Although not yet our baseline call, this would prevent Germany from going through a technical recession. However, still heightened uncertainty and real income losses due to high inflation will likely keep investment spending and private consumption flatlining in the first half of the year. Hence, we maintain our 0% forecast for 2023 German GDP growth, although upside risks have increased since the start of the year. [more]
9
March 1, 2023

German housing market: History suggests it is an inflation hedge

Region:
Germany
Chart in Focus
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
We calculate a nominal and real return triangle for German house prices from 1970 to 2022. The market offered an inflation hedge in the past. This is in particular true for periods of high inflation as in these periods house prices even exceeded inflation. The huge supply shortage and rising rents are further arguments for a bottoming out of house prices in 2023. [more]
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