An updated world outlook
Peter Hooper
Matthew Luzzetti
Matthew Barnard
In this episode
A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve. 
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What we discuss
- In a recent updated World Outlook report, DB’s Global Economics team has raised its forecast for global growth in 2021 to nearly 7%, which is well above consensus.
- What are the key components driving these revised growth forecasts in the US, Europe and globally for this year and next?
- Inflation is starting to rise and has quickly become the center of debate among investors. What’s going to keep inflation under control, and what are the key upside and downside risk factors?
- The Fed recently signaled that they do not expect to raise rates before 2024. What do we expect from the US central bank in the coming years given our views about inflation risks?
- What is the market pricing in now in terms of inflation risks and Fed policy, and how might this tug-of-war between the market and the Fed play out?
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