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Thematic Research

Excerpts of selected reports as well as fundamental analyses which were originally published on Client Research Portal. 
 
142 Documents
    
June 7, 2023

World Outlook: The Waiting Game…

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid
Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start to hit. That weak outlook is evident elsewhere too, and their forecasts don’t expect any G7 country to grow by more than 0.8% in 2024. However, when it comes to the long term they are very enthusiastic about the prospects of AI changing the nature of our economies in the years ahead, which could offer some optimism after a very challenging start to the decade. [more]
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May 24, 2023

Can AI save high-labour firms?

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Companies with a large number of employees have a big problem. Quite simply, they fail to extract as much value from each staff member as do low-staff firms. Indeed, labour-intense firms tend to have a lower market cap, thinner margins, and lower growth rates.
AI may be the way forward. In this piece, we argue that AI will make workers more productive, particularly in high-staff firms. The reason is that the profitability of high-staff firms has the highest leverage to the performance of their labour force. AI will help upskill them and streamline repetitive and mundane tasks that are more prevalent in high-staff companies. [more]
3
May 23, 2023

Generative AI and ChatGPT 101

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
Next week will mark six months since the launch of ChatGPT, the chatbot based on OpenAI’s GPT-3.5 large language model. There has been an extraordinary flurry of launches, hype and activity since then. Even in the past week, OpenAI, Google and Meta announced fresh products, OpenAI’s CEO testified in Congress, and the G7 called for “guardrails” on AI, among many other developments. [more]
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May 22, 2023

Generative AI represents a turning point for humanity - for better and for worse

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
David Folkerts-Landau
The AI hype cycle is in overdrive. It feels like the volume of text generated by ChatGPT over the past six months has almost been matched by the volume of hyperbole about how foundation models will change the world. For once the hype is (mostly) justified. Generative AI is not another metaverse or, for that matter, another crypto currency. But it will change the world – for better and for worse. [more]
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March 21, 2023

AI & The Five Ws: Why, What, Who, When, Where?

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Adrian Cox, Marion Laboure
Artificial Intelligence arguably came to life for the general population with the release of the accessible chatbot ChatGPT three months ago, but the technology and opportunities likely remain a mystery to many. Following March 14, 2023 release of GPT-4, an update to the technology underlying ChatGPT, we publish a new Chartbook on Artificial Intelligence and address the five Ws: Why, What, Who, When, and Where. [more]
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March 8, 2023

The lessons of history: which historic period is most like today?

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid
Something we’re often asked is which era in history is most like this one. Perhaps the obvious answer is the 1970s, given the energy shock and high inflation. Others have pointed to the late-90s and early-2000s, when the dot com bubble burst and big tech valuations fell substantially. Or maybe it’s more like the 1960s, another era where policymakers moved to fine-tune
economies amidst low unemployment, but which saw inflation get increasingly out of control. [more]
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