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World Outlook 2022-23: Dodging the Tempests

Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Research
Peter Hooper

Deutsche Bank Research shares economic predictions over the next two years.

Menacing storm clouds have gathered around our outlook for the next two years, David Folkerts-Landau, Deutsche Bank’s Chief Economist, and Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, write in their report World Outlook 20022-23: Dodging the Tempests.
The economists base their ominous predictions on several factors: Inflation is pushing 6% or more in Europe and the US while central banks continue quantitative easing. A new and more infectious strain of Covid is spreading rapidly as vaccination rates lag. Supply chains remain clogged with delivery times and transport costs near all time highs. Potential populist-driven political turmoil, climactic tempests, and geopolitical storms loom.
While they say the odds of a shipwreck have risen dramatically, the economists say a way can still be seen to the safe harbour of a relatively soft landing.
The overview summarizes assumptions about the two key determinants of the global macro outlook over the year ahead and beyond: progression of the pandemic and the easing of supply chain disruptions.
They then present the current baseline forecast for growth, inflation, and central bank policy rates globally and across major countries/regions of the world. The next two sections present more detailed analyses of recent developments and prospects for Covid -19 and supply chain developments.
The outlook concludes with brief overviews of outlooks for each of the major financial markets.
Clients of Deutsche Bank Research can access the full report here.
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