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1247 (81-90)
August 1, 2023
Region:
Germany is a car-loving country. With a density of 578 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, more than one in two people in Germany owns a car (including children and the very elderly). The number of cars has risen steadily in recent years and shows that - despite the climate debate, congested inner cities and the supposedly car-critical Generation Z - there seems to be no car fatigue in Germany. [more]
July 26, 2023
Over the past year, the view that a recession would be needed to enable the Fed to achieve its firm target of returning inflation to 2% has gone from long shot to consensus view to, essentially, a coin toss. In their recent US Economic Perspectives report, Deutsche Bank Research attempts to answer the question: Recession or soft landing: Is disinflation different this time? [more]
July 25, 2023
Region:
Germany’s growth is under pressure from renewed cyclical and structural headwinds. In this edition of Focus Germany we introduce our new Nowcast Model for German GDP, predicting that the German economy should have expanded in Q2, but that risks for activity in H2 are increasing. We take the summer break in Berlin as an opportunity for a midterm review of the traffic-light coalition’s work. In a historic flashback we revisit the challenges Germany was facing when the Economist called it the sick man of the euro and which policy measures transformed the country into an Economic superstar a decade later. We find interesting parallels to today’s situation. [more]
July 12, 2023
Region:
Analyst:
In this report, we analyze the recent developments in the market share of electric cars in important car markets (Europe, USA, China) and the role of German manufacturers or group brands in this market segment. The market share of German OEMs in the field of e-mobility varies in the major automotive markets. In Europe, their market share for electric cars is currently slightly below that for all new passenger car registrations. In the US, German manufacturers have a larger share of the electric car market than in the overall market. In China, however, German manufacturers are noticeably behind domestic suppliers and Tesla. In all markets, we expect competition in the field of e-mobility to continue to increase. [more]
July 10, 2023
Region:
In the second edition of our Energy Transition Monitor we disentangle the drivers of lower economy-wide energy consumption into cyclical (winter-recession) and structural (loss of production capacities, energy-efficiency measures) factors. Moreover, we take a look at the shift in primary energy sources – from gas towards renewables and coal and why we are (finally) seeing a higher speed of solar PV build-out. We also provide an update of our gas supply-demand model for the upcoming winter. Finally, we summarize current policy action aimed at boosting domestic energy capacity (solar and wind) and improve the overall economy’s energy efficiency, both at the EU and national level. Our earlier thematic analysis on German gas supply and Germany's energy transition includes: "Energy Transition Monitor #1 - what, when and how", "Costs of electricity generation: system costs matter" and "EU Green Deal Industrial Plan - status update and how to fund it". [more]
July 6, 2023
Region:
Analyst:
To strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy, its authorities are also pushing for a retail payment solution provided by European players. A market-backed project and a state-backed project have emerged. While the European Payments Initiative (EPI) will build on existing instant payment infrastructure and the wallet is supposed to go live early next year, the legal and technical foundations for the digital euro are still under development. As both solutions could easily cannibalize each other, better coordination would benefit Europe. [more]
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