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October 14, 2022

Video: Ten Green Bottlenecks

Region:
Europe
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
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With all the talk of gas storage at 91%... new LNG terminals … and billions of public money to be spent on renewable energy… you might think Europe is on the brink of ending its dependency on Russian gas and moving to clean energy.
But we see 10 reasons why this will take longer than expected. [more]
October 12, 2022

The next EM crisis is here

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Anthony Wong, Drausio Giacomelli, Michael Spencer
PDF 835k
Emerging economies face an extremely challenging environment. Rising USD and EUR yields as the Fed and ECB raise policy rates quickly to try to stabilize prices; depreciating currencies, especially against the dollar, as a consequence; slowing growth; extreme climate events and the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine in the form of a further boost to food and fuel prices. [more]
September 29, 2022

Shipwrecked

Region:
International
The House View - Snapshot
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
PDF 143k
Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. We are in the midst of a historic bursting of the bond bubble, and a once-in-a-generation equity revaluation, combined with a sustained flight into the USD. The latter has been driven by geopolitical consideration as well as the failure of the ECB and the BoE to act as decisively on inflation as the Fed. Our street-leading prediction of a US recession by end-2023 has become increasingly mainstream, and we also expect the Euro Area and German economy to contract by at least -2% and -3% respectively next year. [more]
September 28, 2022

Long-Term Asset Return Study 2022: How we got here and where we're going…

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Adrian Cox, Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Luke Templeman
PDF 199k
In a new annual report ‘Long-term asset return study 2022: How we got here and where we’re going…..’ our thematics team explore 2022, which has been one of the toughest years for financial markets in decades. Bonds and equities are declining in unison, and we are now in the first global bear market for government bonds in 70 years. Read an extract touching on these themes, but with the main report focusing on how we got into the perilous economic, social and political situation in which we find ourselves today. Clients of Deutsche Bank Research can access the full report here. [more]
September 27, 2022

German economy: Out in the cold

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
PDF 1M
German economy: Out in the cold. The real income and confidence shock resulting from the NS1 shutoff as well as the negative real wealth shock of some EUR 1.5 tn will likely send private consumption into a tailspin in 2023. Surging uncertainty and the energy shock causing a slump in competitiveness and profits will put a brake on corporate investment spending, in our opinion. The three fiscal packages and a probable additional one will likely not prevent a GDP slump. Together with a weaker global outlook, we expect the loss in final domestic demand to result in a GDP drop of 3% to 4% in 2023, after an increase of around 1% in 2022. [more]
September 27, 2022

Video: European Energy Crisis 101

Region:
Europe
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
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Energy prices have gone through the roof. Does Europe have enough gas to get through the winter? Adrian Cox explores how Europe has been on a breakneck drive to fill up its gas storage reservoirs this summer, piping gas in from Norway and the UK and shipping LNG from America. But will that be enough? Watch this new video to find out more. [more]
September 22, 2022

Video: The Brand Wagon

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Mitch Collett
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We believe Consumer Staples companies are defined by the health and strength of their brands. As a result, we’ve just published a major piece of research which we call ‘the Brand Wagon’. In the report we analyse A&P investment over the last 25 years for the 26 largest Consumer Staples companies we cover in both Europe and the US.

This analysis allows us to assess how company investment in brands affects both financial and share price performance over the long term. We also look at how changing media consumption habits are impacting the way Consumer Staples companies build brands and whether the shift to digital versus traditional is making marketing investment cheaper or more effective. [more]
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