Once again, some see Germany as the “sick man of Europe”. This week, the 2023 ranking of the Global Innovation Index is released with Germany at rank 8, again. It does not only provide a good measure for innovation but also gives important insights into a country’s competitiveness. Indeed, there are numerous challenges especially with respect to digitalization and demographics. But Germany is also still a powerhouse in providing excellent R&D. [mehr]

The banking sector in Europe is benefiting from a set of conditions which have allowed for the strongest bottom-line result on record, even surpassing the pre-financial crisis peak of 2007. Rising interest rates have led to a surge in net interest income, asset quality remains sound and provisions therefore contained, and banks maintain tight cost discipline. Capital and liquidity levels continue to be robust, considerable returns to shareholders notwithstanding. European banks have also caught up with their US peers with regard to profitability ratios, for the first time in many years. Further gains in this benign environment may be harder to achieve though. [mehr]

In March 2021 we published a report introducing our cross-sectional mean reversion factor that has been traded out-of-sample since then (Bloomberg ticker: DBRPGERU). In this new report we expand on our previous work by showing how using daily returns more efficiently improves performance even when trading weekly and demonstrate how earnings dates can boost predictive power by avoiding trading against the post-earnings drift. We also introduce an approach to improve the signal using trading volume and propose a turnover control approach that can enhance capacity while preserving performance. [mehr]

Das Kreditvolumen mit Unternehmen und Selbstständigen ist auch im zweiten Quartal nur leicht gestiegen (EUR +8,3 Mrd.; +4,6% ggü. Vj.). Zwar verschärften die Banken die Kreditstandards kaum noch und gaben auch die Leitzinserhöhungen nicht komplett weiter, aber die Nachfrage brach erneut ein. Auslandsbanken gewinnen, Großbanken verlieren Marktanteile. Die Einlagen sanken das dritte Quartal in Folge. Anleihe- und Aktienemissionen erholten sich etwas nach der jüngsten Schwäche. Die deutsche Volkswirtschaft kommt weiter nicht vom Fleck. Nach der leichten Rezession im Winterhalbjahr stagnierte das BIP in Q2. Der private Konsum enttäuschte und die Nettoexporte verzeichneten ein Minus. Bei den Investitionen leisteten nur die Vorratsveränderungen einen nennenswerten Wachstumsbeitrag. Angesichts der anhaltenden Gegenwinde ist für das laufende Jahr eine stärkere Schrumpfung der Wirtschaft zu erwarten (-0,5%), für 2024 nur ein Plus von 0,3%. [mehr]

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its two-day meeting today. Please watch Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti and spokesperson Gary Ramsay debrief the outcome. [mehr]

In their latest report, Adrian Cox and Galina Pozdnyakova take us through six important themes that began to emerge over the past few months, proving that issues around AI continue to be top of mind in all areas of the financial, political, and technological world despite a typically more relaxed summer pace. [mehr]

The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [mehr]

The excitement around Artificial Intelligence that had been building since OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT at the end of last year cooled off slightly over the past couple of months. Investors, entrepreneurs and analysts went to the beach, the media focused on time-honoured summer themes including season stories, and students took time off from writing essays using chatbots. Adrian Cox highlight six themes you missed while you were at the beach. Visit our dedicated AI website for more www.dbresearch.com/ai [mehr]

Megatrends wie Dekarbonisierung, Digitalisierung und Demografie sowie Anzeichen einer Deglobalisierung könnten in den 2020er Jahren strukturelle Angebotsengpässe verursachen. In diesem Bericht betrachten wir Rohstoffe wie Kupfer, Kobalt, Nickel oder Lithium, bei denen die weltweite Nachfrage wahrscheinlich schneller steigen wird als das Angebot, nicht zuletzt aufgrund der Energiewende. Auch die Verfügbarkeit von Arbeitskräften wird zunehmend zu einem Knappheitsfaktor. Wegen der Angebotsengpässe könnte das Potenzialwachstum in Deutschland künftig näher an der 0,5%- als an der 1%-Marke liegen. [mehr]

Megatrends such as decarbonisation, digitalisation and demographics, as well as signs of deglobalisation, could cause structural supply bottlenecks in the 2020s. In this report, we look at commodities such as copper, cobalt, nickel or lithium, for which global demand is likely to rise faster than supply, not least due to the energy transition. The availability of labour is also increasingly becoming a scarcity factor. Due to supply bottlenecks, potential growth in Germany could be closer to the 0.5% than the 1% mark in the future. [mehr]