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1826 (71-80)
19. Juli 2022
Auf dem Weg in die Rezession. In unserem Baseline-Szenario wird die Gas-Krise – auch ohne umfassende Rationierung – zusammen mit der US-Rezession und weiteren Hemmnissen zu moderaten BIP-Rückgängen in den kommenden Quartalen führen. Nach einer Expansion um 1 ¼% im Jahr 2022 dürfte das deutsche BIP 2023 um rund 1% schrumpfen. In einem „der Gashahn bleibt zu“-Szenario, könnte das BIP im Jahr 2023 um 5 - 6% einbrechen. [mehr]
19. Juli 2022
Autor:
Stablecoins and the DeFi ecosystem have taken a hard hit recently. However, the current stress for cryptos caused by tighter monetary policy may reveal which services offer real value for customers. In fact, leading collateral-backed stablecoins have weathered the storm quite well. The ecosystem will probably face further losses but emerge consolidated and well positioned for continued growth. [mehr]
15. Juli 2022
Assessing the state of the US economy has become very tricky recently with various datapoints sending conflicting signals about the underlying strength. While 2.7 million new jobs were added in the first half of 2022 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.6%, consumer sentiment is plumbing historical lows and forward-looking growth indicators have weakened. Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks to Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, to shed light on what is going on. [mehr]
14. Juli 2022
Moving into recession. A likely further decline in Russian gas supply after the maintenance of NS1 will necessitate additional savings. While we do not expect a full rationing, we believe the economic consequences will together with a US recession and other headwinds push Germany into a recession in H2 2022. Given that prospects for Russian gas deliveries have darkened since February, this energy shock will not hit Germany by surprise or unprepared. Hence, we expect a modest but rather drawn-out GDP decline, as the economy gradually adjusts. After a 1 ¼% expansion in 2022, German GDP will shrink by around 1% in 2023, largely because consumers will not be able to offset the real income loss by further dissaving. In a “tap remains turned off” scenario, we expect a rationing of gas leading to a GDP slump between 5% and 6% in 2023. [mehr]
7. Juli 2022
The quant team's 'Academic Insights' report discusses the most relevant, recently published academic papers on various topics related to quantitative investing as sourced by Deutsche Bank Research analysts. The latest edition, which features over 70 studies and podcasts, includes climate research, digital assets, intangibles, inflation, tail risk hedging and diversification. Watch this latest video with Caio Natividade to find out what stands out. [mehr]
6. Juli 2022
From 2035, only climate-neutral passenger cars will be allowed to be registered in the EU. In principle, the course is being set in the direction of battery-electric mobility. However, the option of using e-fuels is not completely off the table. The market shares of electric cars in total new registrations currently vary widely within the EU. Southern and Eastern European countries are lagging behind. To increase the acceptance of e-mobility, the expansion of the charging infrastructure must be widely accelerated. This is a major challenge that also requires the support of the state. The trend towards electric mobility has already triggered a noticeable structural change in Germany as an automotive location. The net impact of this structural change on value creation and employment in Germany is likely to be negative. [mehr]
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