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Globale Suche

1252 (61-70)
30. September 2019
The future of bank branches has been under scrutiny for some time due to the increased usage of online and mobile banking. On top of the general trend, regional differences in demand for branch services may have important implications for the future of branch networks. Structurally fewer client visits in certain regions may exacerbate the pressure to close branches. Within Germany, the number of bank branches has declined sharply from around 40,000 in 2007 to some 28,000 in 2018. [mehr]
30. September 2019
A new (green) 'fiscal deal' in Germany? The climate protection programme is no game changer for fiscal policies as it will be largely counter-financed by additional revenues. The ecological steering effect of the climate package is also limited since the initial carbon price will be low. Speculations that Germany will finally relent and embark on a decisive fiscal policy loosening have proved to be overplayed. We stick to our call that we will not see a fiscal package unless Germany enters a severe recession. Still, Germany’s budget surpluses are set to narrow considerably in 2019/20. (Also included in this issue: German labour market, industrial production, auto industry, the view from Berlin) [mehr]
30. September 2019
Ein (grüner) Kursschwenk in der deutschen Fiskalpolitik? Das Klimaschutzprogramm ändert nichts an der grundsätzlichen Ausrichtung der deutschen Fiskalpolitik, da die zusätzlichen Ausgaben für den Klimaschutz größtenteils durch zusätzliche Einnahmen gegenfinanziert werden sollen. Die von dem Paket ausgehenden ökologischen Lenkungswirkungen dürften aufgrund des anfänglich recht niedrigen CO2-Preises begrenzt sein. Die mit dem Klimapaket verknüpften Erwartungen einer massiven Lockerung in der deutschen Fiskalpolitik haben sich letztlich als unrealistisch und übertrieben herausgestellt. Wir halten an unserer Einschätzung fest, dass die Regierung nur im Falle einer schweren Rezession ein antizyklisches Konjunkturpaket schnüren dürfte. Dennoch wird der deutsche Haushaltsüberschuss 2019/20 deutlich abschmelzen. (Außerdem in dieser Ausgabe: Deutscher Arbeitsmarkt, Industriekonjunktur, Automobilindustrie, EZB) [mehr]
25. September 2019
The climate action package is a classic example of political compromise. It aims to support climate protection without overextending private households and companies. Criticism is perfectly justified. In the final analysis, however, the climate action package is also a reflection of the society's attitude towards climate protection: Whilst a majority of Germans support more climate protection, only a few are willing to shoulder the financial burdens. [mehr]
23. September 2019
Improved performance in the second quarter has given European banks hope that 2019 may still end on a more conciliatory note and that longer-term prospects are not quite as gloomy as some fear. In H1, net interest income rose year-over-year, despite unrelenting margin pressure. Other revenue components were mixed, with fee and commission income disappointing again. Loans and total assets in general increased. Banks cut expenses further, while loan loss provisions picked up from record lows. In the end, profitability and capital levels remained largely stable. Once more, the transatlantic gulf in performance widened slightly, as US banks reported another rise in net income to a new all-time high. [mehr]
23. September 2019
Das Klimaschutzpaket ist ein Paradebeispiel für einen politischen Kompromiss. Es soll einen Beitrag für den Klimaschutz leisten, aber private Haushalte und Unternehmen nicht überfordern. Die Kritik am Klimaschutzpaket ist berechtigt. Letztlich ist er aber auch ein Spiegelbild der gesellschaftlichen Einstellung zum Klimaschutz: Denn eine Mehrheit ist zwar für stärkeren Klimaschutz, aber nur wenige sind auch dazu bereit, finanzielle Lasten zu tragen. [mehr]
23. September 2019
Jim Reid, Global Head of Thematic Research & Credit Research, Deutsche Bank Research has just published his annual Long-Term Asset Return Study. This year's focus is on the History and Future of Debt. The report also have all the usual long-term returns data for dozens of countries across different asset classes tracked back over more than a century for many series. [mehr]
20. September 2019
So far, Germany’s efforts to arrive at a more sustainable energy profile (the ‘Energiewende’) have focused on the electricity sector. However, attention is increasingly shifting towards the transport sector and its steadily rising carbon emissions. Decades-old demands, such as replacing road by railway transport, are being repeat-ed once again, even though they have been found impossible to realise. And some new concepts are being presented, such as micro e-mobility. However, their contributions to transport reform are negligible at best; they may even prove counterproductive. Ultimately, the solution is simple, if uncomfortable: long-term climate protection goals (i.e. virtual carbon neutrality) can only be reached by a considerable decline in traffic, unless technology makes significant progress. Policymakers will find it difficult to convey this message, seeing that individual mobility is one of the key concepts of a liberal society. [mehr]