1. Research
  2. Globale Suche
998 (61-70)
2. Juli 2018
The month of June was marked by various political irritations which of course also had a certain impact on economies and markets. The US-EU trade conflicts seems set to broaden beyond steel and aluminium. The threat of imposing tariffs on US car imports will be felt particularly in the export-driven German car industry which already has to deal with stricter regulations and a cyclical slowdown in important export markets. On the domestic front, the German retail sector is facing ongoing structural change due to digitalisation. The German government crisis between the CDU and the Bavarian CSU over the course of the asylum policy is still not settled despite the rather constructive outcome of the EU summit. The various party bodies will convene and later on Monday there will be another meeting between Chancellor Merkel and Interior Minister Seehofer. In view of the factors weighing on economic sentiment, we consider our recent adjustment of our annual GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2% to be justified. [mehr]
2. Juli 2018
Region:
The UK’s exit from the EU will have significant repercussions for the financial industry, notably investment banking. London as the primary European hub is likely to lose its full access to the single market. Currently, financial services exports play a major role for Britain and almost half of them go to the EU. Without the surplus it generates from providing investment banking services to EU customers, Britain’s current account deficit would be 40% higher. Following Brexit and the likely loss of the single European passport, non-EU banks will have to set up or build-out subsidiaries in the EU-27 with own capital, liquidity, corporate governance and fully-fledged operations. This could lead to an additional EUR 35-45 bn of capital being ‘ring-fenced’. This represents a further leg of banking balkanisation with trapped capital, liquidity and resources – profitability will be under pressure and not all EU business models will be viable. [mehr]
28. Juni 2018
Region:
Autor:
With the new Payment Services Directive ("PSD 2") of the EU, which entered into force on 13 January 2018, payment services in Europe have become the frontrunner of "open banking". Account holders can request, free of charge, that banks transmit their financial data in digital form to third parties. Furthermore, they can authorise third-party providers to initiate payments from their bank account. Personal data are owned by the data subject – this principle also forms the basis of the new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Under the latter, however, there is no obligation to provide a technical solution through which customers can transmit their personal data to third-party providers in a convenient manner. In contrast to the PSD 2, the GDPR is therefore unlikely to stimulate innovation and competition in payments. In the financial sector, competition will thus be distorted. Banks must grant competitors access to customer data and their payment infrastructure, whereas internet platforms, for instance, de facto retain sovereignty over the personal data of their customers as well as access to their platforms. [mehr]
27. Juni 2018
This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [mehr]
20. Juni 2018
Region:
Die Datenschutz-Grundverordnung der EU könnte in Teilen maßgebliche Folgen für den Wettbewerb in der EU-Datenwirtschaft sowie die Konkurrenzfähigkeit des Technologiesektors und der KI-Startups in der Union haben. Angesichts eines zunehmenden Bewusstseins der Nutzer für die Wahrung ihrer Privatsphäre, könnte Datenschutz "made in Europe" zwar zu einem potenziellen Wettbewerbsvorteil für europäische Unternehmen werden. Ebenso denkbar ist aber, dass die Marktposition der führenden Technologie-Giganten weiter gestärkt wird und Europa im globalen Rennen um die KI-Vorherrschaft gegenüber den USA und China weiter zurückfällt. Zeichnen sich potenziell negative Auswirkungen auf die EU-Datenwirtschaft ab, sollten die EU-Gesetzgeber daher nicht zögern, entsprechende Anpassungen vorzunehmen. [mehr]
19. Juni 2018
Region:
Autor:
Mit der neuen Zahlungsverkehrsrichtlinie („PSD 2“) der EU, die seit dem 13. Januar gültig ist, wird der Zahlungsverkehr in Europa zum Vorreiter des „Open Bankings“: Kontoinhaber dürfen kostenlos verfügen, dass die Bank ihre Finanzdaten in digitaler Form an Dritte weitergibt. Außerdem dürfen sie Drittanbieter beauftragen, Zahlungen auf ihrem Bankkonto auszulösen. Personenbezogene Daten gehören dem Datensubjekt – dieses Prinzip liegt auch der neuen Datenschutz-Grundverordnung (DSGVO) zugrunde. Allerdings fehlt hier die Pflicht, dem Kunden eine einfache Übertragung seiner personenbezogenen Daten an Drittanbieter durch eine technische Lösung zu ermöglichen. Anders als die PSD 2 wird die DSGVO deshalb kaum die Innovation und den Wettbewerb im Zahlungsverkehr beleben. Dies führt im Finanzbereich zu Wettbewerbsverzerrungen: Banken müssen Wettbewerbern Zugang zu Kundendaten und zur Zahlungsinfrastruktur der Banken geben. Umgekehrt werden jedoch z.B. Internetplattformen de facto weiterhin die Hoheit über die personenbezogenen Daten ihrer Kunden sowie über den Zugang zu ihrer Plattform behalten. [mehr]
15. Juni 2018
Region:
The European Council meeting on June 28-29 is fraught with expectation of a breakthrough on EA reforms. However, while the aim of strengthening the resilience of the euro area is shared, means, scope and sequencing of action remain subject to debate. Also, it is open how the change of the political leadership in parts of the EA will affect the process. [mehr]
13. Juni 2018
Region:
Several aspects of the European data protection regulation GDPR could have far-reaching implications for competition in the EU’s data economy and the competitiveness of the bloc’s tech industry and AI startups. Data protection “made in Europe” could give European companies a competitive edge as users become increasingly privacy-aware. But GDPR could also end up rather strengthening the position of incumbent tech giants and throw the continent further behind the US and China in the emerging race for global AI dominance. If potential negative implications of the regulation for the EU’s data economy materialize, EU lawmakers should not hesitate to make adjustments accordingly. [mehr]
11. Juni 2018
China ran a $376bn trade surplus against the US in 2017. US goods exports to China are worth only a quarter of US imports from China. However, these numbers do not capture the true size of US business interest in China. They are at odds with the fact, for example, that Chinese consumers own more active iPhones and buy more General Motor cars than US consumers do. These cars and phones are sold to China not through US exports, but through Chinese subsidiaries of US multinational enterprises. [mehr]
1.2.1