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1188 (101-110)

Europe finally catching up on the US?

December 20, 2022
Region:
Europe
Topic:
Banking and financial markets
Analyst:
Jan Schildbach
Chart in Focus
101
For more than a decade, European banks have sought to catch up and narrow the gap to their US peers. For many years, they were not particularly successful, due to a number of reasons: economic growth in the US outpaced that in Europe, interest rates were consistently higher (and never negative) on the other side of the Atlantic, and restructuring and capital raising needs were greater in Europe which constrained the banks’ ability to expand their business. In the past few years, however, European banks’ performance has indeed improved and they have not just made substantial progress, but also seem well positioned to finally reduce the distance to their US competitors. [more]

Outlook 2023/24: New global realities

December 19, 2022
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Heike Mai, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
102
We look at the expected recession in the winter half-year 2022/23 and the onset of recovery, how inflation will peak, while the labor market loses momentum and private consumption is hit by the loss of purchasing power. Construction and Capex spending are set to deteriorate. Fiscal policy continues to lean against the headwinds but should normalize somewhat. Loan growth, both with corporates and private households, may slow substantially. In a medium-term perspective, we discuss risks for the manufacturing industry and Germany’s geopolitical and competitive position. [more]

Top 10 themes for 2023

December 7, 2022
Analyst:
Luke Templeman
Thematic Research
107
People often ask me how we choose our themes of the year ahead. It is not a hard science, but there is a framework we use. It starts by asking the following question: “What policies and developments in the economic, business, and political world are unsustainable, and what will it take for them to become sustainable?”. [more]

World Outlook 2023: The Looming Recession

December 7, 2022
Region:
International
Analyst:
Mark Wall, Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Podzept (Podcast series)
108
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics Research, Matt Luzzetti, Chief US Economist and Mark Wall, Chief European Economist, discuss the world outlook 2023 as we find ourselves at a defining moment for the global economy. Inflation is running at multi-decade highs, central banks are pursuing their most aggressive tightening cycle in a couple generations, and a recession is now increasingly expected in the US and Europe. As 2023 nears, there is a growing consensus that it is shaping up will be the third-worst year for global growth so far in the 21st century, behind only the pandemic year in 2020 and the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009. [more]

Top 8 notable takeaways from COP27

November 23, 2022
Region:
International
Topic:
Sustainability
Analyst:
Debbie Jones, Luke Templeman, Tejasvini Viraj
Thematic Research
110
Overall, was COP27 a success or failure? The answer likely depends on your expectations going into the conference. The event took place against a difficult geopolitical backdrop, rising inflation and an energy security crisis that some nations interpret as support for energy diversification strategies that align with fossil fuel growth. In a recent dbSustainability report the team discuss top 8 takeaways from COP27. [more]
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