We calculate a nominal and real return triangle for German house prices from 1970 to 2022. The market offered an inflation hedge in the past. This is in particular true for periods of high inflation as in these periods house prices even exceeded inflation. The huge supply shortage and rising rents are further arguments for a bottoming out of house prices in 2023. [more]

In the first part of series 4 of our Future of Payments series, Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace take a look at how the end of a rare macroeconomic environment, featuring near-zero interest rates, stimulus packages, and excess liquidity, could clean the market of bad actors, much like the dot-com bubble did two decades ago. [more]

How do we identify the key themes that are driving markets and economies, and also incorporate their impact into investment and corporate decisions? Adrian Cox asks Luke Templeman about his latest report ’16 themes driving markets and economies’. It highlights the top themes and explains how applying a common framework across different themes is necessary to assess how those themes can affect each other. “You can read something written by intelligent people on theme A and then theme B, and they might make sense individually, but they may overlap in ways that are mutually exclusive. That’s what really interests me”, says Templeman. [more]

Identifying the big themes driving markets and economies is one thing, but more critical is to incorporate their impact into investment and corporate decisions. Luke Templeman, Thematic Research Analyst, provides a one-page summary of the 16 global themes he believes most cross corporates, economies, and markets. [more]

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace is a Thematic Research Analyst. In our "Q&A with…" series she discusses the highlights from the most recent edition of The House View Snapshot – including its AI generated cover image. She also shares her favourite experience since joining the Deutsche Bank Graduate programme last year. [more]

With our new German Economic Chartbook, we take the pulse of the German economy, both from a cyclical and a structural perspective. What better time for its launch than the upward revision to our 2023 forecast. We now expect only a mild technical recession in the winter half-year, so annual GDP should move sideways rather than contract. The abating energy price shock has also prompted a downward revision to our inflation forecast, although we remain concerned about wage dynamics and their impact on core inflation, given the increasingly structural tightness in the labour market. Still, the resulting loss of real purchasing power will prevent private consumption from boosting growth as its did in 2022, when the normalisation of the savings rate more than offset the decline in real disposable income. [more]

With all eyes on the Federal Reserve and US economy in 2023 consumer price index report for January garnered a lot of interest. Watch Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, analyze the inflation data and its implications for the economy and monetary policy. [more]

After a succession of forecast downgrades, the global economy has turned a corner since the end of last year. For instance, natural gas prices in Europe have more than halved over the last couple of months, and we no longer expect an imminent Euro Area recession. In the meantime, China’s post-Covid reopening has proceeded faster than many thought possible, leading to similar upgrades in our forecasts. Even in the US, where we continue to call for a recession in H2, unemployment has reached a 53-year low. [more]

Protecting your portfolio with confidence: Our Quant team just released a report on using vanilla put options to hedge against tail risk. From measurement to portfolio construction, we cover all the key aspects of successful portfolio protection. See this new video with Ganchi Zhang. Learn more by reaching out to your db sales representative. [more]

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday by 0.25 percentage point. Please watch Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist, and Brian Blackstone, head of communications for the Americas, break down the decision and press conference. [more]