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Globale Suche

1793 (121-130)
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26. Januar 2022
121
Due to significant demand/supply imbalances as well as climate policy measures, energy prices were the main driver of consumer price inflation in Germany in 2021. In 2022 as a whole, prices might increase by more than 20% for gas on average and by more than 15% for electricity. In that case, higher gas and electricity prices would substantially boost Germany’s inflation rate in 2022 (by up to 1 percentage point). In the medium term, a more ambitious climate and energy policy will very likely continue to raise consumer price inflation. At least over the transition period, rising CO2 prices (via the national carbon levy or the EU-wide emissions trading system) will not only lead to a permanently higher price trend for fossil fuels (oil/gas heating, fuels) but also costs for electricity generation. Overall, this weakens the widespread argument to view energy price increases as temporary. [mehr]
25. Januar 2022
124
Nicole DeBlase, lead analyst covering the US Multi-Industry and Machinery Research, speaks with Luke Templeman, Thematic Research Analyst, on the macro setup of the sector in 2022. Often said to be a bellwether for the economy, will Industrials be constructive or destructive in 2022 as the US begins to raise interest rates? [mehr]
19. Januar 2022
126
Zum Jahresbeginn 2022 drohen von mehreren Seiten Risiken: Die Inflationsraten liegen in den großen Volkswirtschaften deutlich über den Zielwerten und über den Erwartungen vom vergangenen Jahr, die Gesamtnachfrage bleibt lebhaft, die globalen Lieferketten funktionieren noch nicht wieder reibungslos, die COVID-19-Pandemie ist nicht überwunden und das geopolitische Klima trübt sich ein. Abwärtsrisiken sind wahrscheinlicher geworden und für eine sanfte Landung im Jahr 2022 müssen einige günstige Annahmen eintreten – und auch eine Portion Glück könnte nötig sein. [mehr]
19. Januar 2022
127
In a new report Peter Hooper, Head of Global Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, explain that in recent months the Fed has pivoted toward a more aggressive path of exiting from its current ultra-accommodative pandemic emergency policy stance. They highlight that their view has also become considerably more hawkish, with their baseline expecting liftoff in March, four total rate hikes this year, and a rapid drawdown in the balance sheet beginning in Q3. The central message of the note is that we could be in for an even bigger hawkish surprise in the months ahead. [mehr]
13. Januar 2022
128
As we arrive in 2022, there are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon to grapple with: inflation rates in the major economies remain well above target and well above what the forecasting community expected last year; aggregate demand remains elevated; global supply-chains are still clogged; the Covid-19 pandemic continues to fester; and the geopolitical climate is also darkening. The odds of an accident have risen and the likelihood of a soft landing in 2022 requires some favourable assumptions and a modicum of good luck. [mehr]
31.2.4