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1679 (21-30)
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20. Dezember 2021
21
The plot for emerging markets thickens further in 2022. Not just the one with Fed ‘dots’, but also the plot around the vaccination roll outs, the zero Covid strategy in China, the normalization of supply chains, and on (geo)politics, among others. There are likely still multiple twists ahead in this tale, and possibly new factors (like Omicron) to deal with. And with all of that, the answer to whether EM can turn around its structural under-allocation from the last several years as it builds back on its appeal of carry/vol and growth. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
22
4% BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2022, trotz technischer Rezession im Winterhalbjahr. Eine synchrone Beschleunigung dürfte zu einem jährlichen BIP-Wachstum von 4% führen. In 2023 werden sich die Quartalsraten auf Trendwachstum verlangsamen. In der Fiskalpolitik führen ehrgeizige Ausgabenpläne und Festhalten an der Schuldenbremse zu offenen Finanzierungsfragen. Auf Basis des bisherigen fiskalischen Regimes wird das Haushaltsdefizit deutlich zurückgehen. Die großen, aber noch nicht bezifferten Ausgabenpläne der neuen Regierung bergen Aufwärtsrisken. Abschwächung der Inflationsraten von über 5%, aber Kernrate wegen Kostenexplosion und großen Preisüberwälzungsspielräumen dauerhaft höher. Gesamt- und Kerninflationsraten dürften auch im Jahr 2023 nicht unter 2% fallen. Neue Bundesregierung: „Team Scholz“ wird Klimaschutz und umfangreiche Steuererleichterungen für grüne und digitale Investitionen in den Mittelpunkt stellen. Die deutsche EU-Politik mit weniger fiskalischem Dogma offener für vorsichtige Reform der EU-Defizitregeln. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
23
Region:
The rebound of Europe’s banking sector from last year’s slump in some ways resembles the recovery following the financial crisis. Just the drivers are different. While in 2009 the main improvement came from much lower writedowns on securities portfolios, in 2021 it was much lower loan loss provisions than in the prior year. In both cases, benign capital markets provided an additional tailwind for investment banking franchises. The industry’s capital and liquidity levels remain high. Maintaining this momentum in 2022 will be more difficult as the low-hanging fruit has been picked. But it may still be possible, given past experience and confidence that the macro economy will continue to gain strength once the pandemic (and supply constraints in manufacturing) has subsided. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
24
Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks with Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist discussing economic predictions over the next two years. They base their ominous predictions on several factors: Inflation is pushing 6% or more in Europe and the US while central banks continue quantitative easing. A new and more infectious strain of Covid is spreading rapidly as vaccination rates lag. Supply chains remain clogged with delivery times and transport costs near all time highs. Potential populist-driven political turmoil, climactic tempests, and geopolitical storms loom. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
25
Quantum 2.0 super technologies will massively change the way we live and work. Quantum has the potential to shape a new economic era. The vision of Quantum 2.0 is that processing power of quantum computing could skyrocket which allows the development of previously technologically unfeasible products and technologies such as an ultra-high performance secure quantum internet. Real-time quantum applications and quantum AI might organize our daily lives. It could also open the door to a new kind of science with novel materials and products in probably every field from medicine to chemistry and physics. As a consequence of these developments, the number of new goods and services may explode. This potential revolution leads to new economic and social questions which we tackle in this publication. It also provides an overview about developments in quantum computing and quantum software. [mehr]
15. Dezember 2021
26
4% GDP growth in 2022, despite technical recession in winter half. A synchronous acceleration should result in annual GDP growth of 4%. In 2023, quarterly GDP growth will slow towards trend. In fiscal policy ambitious spending plans and debt brake commitment lead to open funding questions. Based on the previous fiscal regime, the fiscal deficit is set to narrow considerably. Still, the new government’s big spending plans, which are not yet quantifiable, could drive deficits considerably higher. Inflation decelerating from 5%+ rates, but higher core rate more permanent. Carryover effects and cost pressures will keep CPI inflation elevated. In 2023, headline and core rates are unlikely to fall below 2%. German politics 2022: “Team Scholz” will focus on climate protection and sizeable corporate tax allowances for green and digital investments. German EU policy might be less fiscal orthodox and open to a cautious reform of the EU’s fiscal rules. [mehr]
15. Dezember 2021
28
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Over 101 billion non-cash payments were made in the euro area in 2020, a meagre increase of 3.7%, which mainly reflects a slump in growth of card payments. However, depending on the country and on the payment situation, there were different trends during the pandemic. At the till, payment habits are converging towards card use. In online shopping, national differences (card or e-payment solution) seem to become more pronounced. [mehr]
13. Dezember 2021
30
Diese Woche ist vollgepackt mit sehr wichtigen Datenpunkten und Entscheidungen. Insbesondere die Zentralbankmeetings der großen Zentralbanken stehen im Fokus. Von der Fed am Mittwoch wird erwartet, dass sie die Rückführung ihrer Wertpapierkäufe beschleunigt. Auch die EZB dürfte restriktiver werden. Die Bank of England wird womöglich mit ihrer ersten Zinsanhebung in der Pandemie Schlagzeilen machen. Daneben wird die weitere Ausbreitung der Omikron-Variante im Fokus bleiben. [mehr]
23.2.0