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For the financial sector, sustainable finance is steadily moving up the priority list. It is about incorporating environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations into finance. The global volume of ESG-labelled assets grew to USD 35 tr in 2020 and may reach USD 41 tr by the end of this year. Despite strong growth, sustainable finance still faces obstacles such as the absence of a universally accepted definition of ESG and a lack of data on ESG metrics. Regulation is trying to keep pace with market dynamics to facilitate the flow of funds into sustainable activities. Key initiatives include the establishment of taxonomies, disclosure rules and product-related regulation. In the short term, sustainable finance faces headwinds from adverse macroeconomic conditions and emerging regulatory requirements, but the fundamental growth drivers remain intact. [mehr]

In an unusual constellation, the banking industry is at the same time suffering and benefiting from the current difficult macroeconomic situation. Inflation is driving up expenses, but also triggering a monetary policy normalisation which has fuelled a jump in net interest income. Meanwhile, recession fears require higher loan loss provisions. The net effect has been manageable so far, but is hard to foresee in the second half of the year. The largest capital distributions to shareholders since the financial crisis have pushed the CET1 and leverage ratios lower, though they remain at robust levels. Balance sheet growth has accelerated due to buoyant corporate and mortgage lending, but this may not last given the looming economic slowdown and further interest rate increases. [mehr]

Wie es um die Energiesicherheit in Deutschland steht, erklären Marion Mühlberger und Eric Heymann in der neuen Ausgabe von Podzept. Deutschland könne 20 Prozent weniger Gas als im Vorjahr verbrauchen und Rationierungen vermeiden. Doch das habe seinen wirtschaftlichen Preis. [mehr]

July saw a notable rebound in equity and bond markets – albeit perhaps counterintuitively, given how initially worse economic data had sparked expectations of a dovish Fed pivot. But then investors had to adjust expectations again, after July employment numbers suggested that the Fed may stay on course. According to Blaz Zlicar, markets will continue to be in a state of flux: inflation vs growth. He says “That is the name of the game these days”. Watch this video for more. [mehr]

Rising mortgage rates and shortages of building materials led to a shock of uncertainty in the housing market over the last months. But there are many countervailing effects. Hence, it is not set in stone that the house price cycle comes to an end. [mehr]

In der neuen Ausgabe von Podzept erklärt Sebastian Becker, wie die Entlastungspakete der Bundesregierung wirken und welchen Kurs die Inflation im kommenden Jahr einschlagen dürfte. [mehr]

Zinsanstieg und Baumaterialmangel führte in den letzten Monaten zu einem Unsicherheitsschock in der Immobilienbranche. Doch es gibt viele gegenläufige Effekte. Deshalb muss dies noch nicht das Ende des Hauspreiszyklus sein. [mehr]

Der Corona-bedingte Rückgang der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland im ersten Halbjahr 2021 wurde insbesondere durch Fluchtbewegungen in der zweiten Jahreshälfte ausgeglichen. Dabei gründet sich der Zuzug von außerhalb Europas nicht nur auf Krieg und Vertreibung. Die Zuwanderung wird internationaler, die EU-Binnenwanderung ist dagegen tendenziell rückläufig. Die Einwohnerzahl Deutschlands dürfte sich unserer Prognose nach auf 85,4 Mio. im Jahr 2023 erhöhen, auch in der Folgezeit weiter zulegen und könnte im Jahr 2030 rund 86 Mio. erreichen. Dies hat bedeutende ökonomische Folgen. [mehr]

In a new ‘Q&A with’ Mallika Sachdeva, Asia Macro Strategist, introduces a newly launched Deutsche Bank’s Asia Corporate Newsletter, what market environments corporates are likely to face in the coming quarter and what the longer-term themes most pressing for corporates are. [mehr]

The German labour market held up well during the pandemic and even gained momentum from 2021 onwards. In the meantime, a shift in the employment structure took place that brings the shortage of skilled labour back into focus. [mehr]