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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday by 0.25 percentage point. Please watch Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist, and Brian Blackstone, head of communications for the Americas, break down the decision and press conference. [mehr]

The probability of a significantly negative outcome on the debt ceiling is elevated relative to recent years. The legislative avenues to resolve the debt ceiling are more limited and the political dynamics more contentious. [mehr]

In a new video Rhea Shah highlights how European retail online brokerage and platform universe all feature in the ‘European online brokers & platforms: Catering for the next-gen investors’ report. The report aims to making it easier for investors and corporates to compare companies in one place. [mehr]

2022 gab es viele negative Nachrichten, die die Aktienmärkte beeinflusst haben: Krieg in der Ukraine, Null-COVID-Strategie in China, Energiekrise und Inflation. Für dieses Jahr sind unsere Experten optimistischer. In der neuen Podzept-Ausgabe erklärt Maximilian Uleer, was ihn optimistisch stimmt, welche Sektoren er gerade bevorzugt und warum man schnell Urlaub buchen sollte. [mehr]

The energy crisis has been the biggest economic story of the last year. In a new video James Brand, Head of European Utilities looks at how consumers are managing. What has affected energy prices over the past few months and does the future hold better news? [mehr]

What does the 2023 outlook look like for the European Insurance sector? According to Hadley Cohen, Head of EU Insurance Research the year ahead will have heightened market volatility – not least from widening credit spreads - particularly in the second hald of the year. [mehr]

A recent report by DB Quant Research provides an outlook for 2023, analyzing the performance of different quant strategies from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. Utilizing scenario analysis, the report highlights which styles within equity long-short, trend following, systematic global macro and relative value are expected to perform in 2023. [mehr]

2022 was a tough, roller-coaster year for the global automotive sector. So how is the sector holding up and what could 2023 bring? Even though the global economy is heading into recession, led by the US, inflation remains a drag, and semiconductor availability is still expected to limit output, Tim Rokossa and his team expect the Auto outlook in the EU to develop somewhat differently to the US.

In this new video, Tim highlights five key trends that could shape the sector in the year ahead. [mehr]

Im neuen Podzept stellt Stefan Schneider die aktuellen Prognosen von Deutsche Bank Research vor. Für 2023 erwarten wir – dank der wesentlich kleineren Wachstumsdelle im Winterhalbjahr – nun keinen Rückgang des BIP mehr, sondern eine Stagnation. Die Inflation dürfte im Jahresschnitt bei 7 Prozent liegen. [mehr]

Climate stress tests have emerged as a key tool for looking into the financial system’s vulnerability to climate risks. Banks’ exposure to climate risks stems from (1) physical risks that are closely related to geography, and (2) transition risks mainly from loans to carbon-intensive sectors. Exercises by the ECB and BoE suggest that banks’ credit losses in a disorderly transition would be higher than in an orderly transition scenario, and even higher in a “hot house world” with unabated global warming. Banks would be able to absorb climate-related losses due to strong capital buffers. Results are subject to data limitations and modelling constraints. So far, climate stress tests are declared learning exercises with no direct implications for capital requirements. However, supervisors are urging banks to set up a comprehensive climate risk management. [mehr]