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2059 (11-20)
15. Februar 2024
Current EU Commission President von der Leyen is expected to announce that she is running for a second term on Monday. With less than four months to go until the June 6-9 European parliament elections, we provide an update on current developments and address the following questions: What is the likelihood of a von der Leyen 2.0 Commission and what could be the main policy priorities of the next Commission? To what extent could the prospect of a Trump 2.0 administration be a catalyst for an EU defence capability and spending boost? What do current polls tell us about a possible right-wing shift of the European parliament? How would this impact EU policy making? Which legislative proposals might still be finalised in the current legislative term? [mehr]
14. Februar 2024
Die Spannung steigt. Wann werden EZB und Fed die Leitzinsen senken? In der Eurozone und insbesondere Deutschland stottert der Konjunkturmotor. Die traditionellen und energieintensiven Industrien stehen weiterhin unter Druck. Das könnte auch die Inflation dämpfen und die EZB könnte die Zinsen bereits im April senken. Nachdem diese Woche die US-Inflation etwas stärker zulegte als erwartet, erscheint eine Zinssenkung der Fed im März unwahrscheinlich. Die EZB könnte die Leitzinsen also vor der Fed senken. [mehr]
13. Februar 2024
Production in the manufacturing industry in Germany dropped by 1.2% in 2023 in real terms. This was the second decline in a row (2022: -0.2%) and the fourth decline in the last five years. Thus, industrial output was roughly 9% below the record level of 2018. Since manufacturing output dropped significantly in both Q3 and Q4 2023 (-2.0% and -2.2% qoq respectively), 2024 starts with a significant negative statistical overhang. Sentiment indicators seem to have reached a bottom, but business expectations are still far in negative territory. The negative impact of the recent increase in interest rates on domestic industrial production will likely become visible with a time lag because companies have been able to partly compensate the downturn in new orders by working off the orders booked before 2023. We have revised our forecast for manufacturing production in Germany in 2024 to -2.5% down from -1.5%. In this report, we also look at the economic development in major industrial sectors in Germany. [mehr]
12. Februar 2024
Die deutsche Konjunktur lahmt, insbesondere die jüngsten Industriedaten bestätigen die Rezession über das Winterhalbjahr. In China nehmen jüngst die Deflationssorgen zu. Dagegen gibt es positive Neuigkeiten aus den USA. Dort wird ein Soft Landing wahrscheinlicher und das kräftige Wachstum von über 2% wird unserer Prognose nach beibehalten. Auch in Europa gibt es positive Entwicklungen. So fallen in vielen Südländern die Arbeitslosenraten strukturell. Hält dieser Trend an, könnten in den nächsten Jahren immer mehr Länder und schließlich die Eurozone und die EU insgesamt Vollbeschäftigung erreichen. [mehr]
12. Februar 2024
In early February, the German parliament approved the 2024 budget, ending a prolonged period of uncertainty and provisional budget management. But, torn between the intensifying consolidation requirements under the debt brake and the need to solve the economy's cyclical and structural challenges, the coalition government has already started to debate the upcoming 2025 budget. This fiscal policy debate appears unlikely to be settled anytime soon. In this note we discuss three possible scenarios for how the budget 2025 process might play out. [mehr]
9. Februar 2024
Viele Jahrzehnte lang gab es in Deutschland und in den USA Zeiten geteilter wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit. Nachrichtenbasierte Unsicherheitsindizes für die USA und Deutschland waren stark korreliert. Von den USA ausgehende Schocks wie der 11. September 2001 oder die Finanzkrise lösten in Deutschland eine erhöhte politische Unsicherheit aus. Und Schocks, die von Europa ausgingen – die Staatsschuldenkrise oder der Brexit – erhöhten die Unsicherheit in beiden Volkswirtschaften. Im Vergleich zu solchen externen Schocks verursachten selbst wichtige wirtschaftspolitische Debatten in Deutschland, wie die Agenda-Reformen Mitte der 2000er Jahre, wenig Unsicherheit. [mehr]
8. Februar 2024
The German government this week agreed on the main features of a new power plant strategy. It is intended to address the problem that there will continue to be phases in the future when weather-dependent renewable energies are unable to cover the entire demand for electricity. Back-up power plants with base load capability are currently a necessary building block of an energy strategy based on renewables. German government has decided to bank on hydrogen-ready gas-fired power plants. The government aims to establish a new capacity mechanism by 2028 whereby power plant operators are remunerated for providing secured capacity via tenders. In a first step, 10 gigawatts (GW) of capacity are to be put out to tender in the short term (4 x 2.5 GW). This corresponds to around 20 power plant units. Pending further details, we believe that these plans for a capacity market are a positive development. In our view, it promises greater investment and thus energy security than the alternative of relying on market incentives, i.e., electricity prices remaining temporarily high enough in future to be able to operate such power plants profitably even at low capacity utilisation. One of the major challenges of the future is to obtain sufficient (green) hydrogen for the operation of power plants and industrial processes. [mehr]
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