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1820 (11-20)
17. November 2022
Region:
The European banking sector is currently enjoying a sweet spot. Recent interest rate increases by central banks in most advanced economies combined with strong credit growth are having a pronounced positive impact on revenues, while loan loss provisions remain fairly low so far, although they have started to climb. Bottom line, growth in administrative expenses, individual banks’ tax and litigation payments as well as Russia-related losses have reduced net income, but the industry is still on track for a decent full-year result. More importantly, fundamentally higher-for-longer interest rates may support banks’ business prospects also in the medium term. [mehr]
16. November 2022
US-Dollar könnte Hochpunkt bereits erreicht haben. Letzten Freitag hat der US-Dollar seinen stärksten Zweitagesverlust seit 2008 verzeichnet, was die Frage aufgeworfen hat, ob der Hochpunkt der gegenwärtigen US-Dollar-Stärke bereits erreicht sein könnte. Nach Einschätzung unserer Währungsresearch-Kollegen könnte dies in der Tat der Fall sein. Für das Erreichen das US-Dollar Peaks sprechen unserer Meinung nach eine Reihe von Gründen. Erstens hat sich der Inflationsdruck in den USA zuletzt überraschend stark abgeschwächt, was die Fed dazu veranlassen dürfte, einen weniger steilen Zinserhöhungspfad einzuschlagen. Zweitens könnten etwas weniger strenge Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Corona-Pandemie in China sich positiv auf das chinesische BIP-Wachstum auswirken. Drittens hat auch das Risiko, dass Europa im Winter in eine Gasmangellage schlittern könnte, zuletzt nachgelassen. [mehr]
15. November 2022
Autor:
In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The second episode dives into connectivity constellations and how optical/laser terminals could boost performance. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Bulent Altan, CEO of Mynaric and also an early SpaceX employee. [mehr]
14. November 2022
Die zuletzt niedriger als erwartet ausgefallenen US-Inflationszahlen (für den Monat Oktober) haben Hoffnungen genährt, dass die Fed die nach wie vor zu hohe Inflation fortan mit etwas kleineren Zinsschritten bekämpfen könnte. Konjunkturseitig dürften sich in den USA in dieser Woche die Blicke vor allem auf die neuesten Zahlen zu den Erzeugerpreisen, zur Industrieproduktion und zu den Einzelhandelsumsätzen (allesamt für den Berichtsmonat Oktober) richten. In der Eurozone steht u.a. die Veröffentlichung der detaillierten (finalen) Oktober-Inflationsdaten an. In Großbritannien wird mit Spannung das „UK Autumn Statement“ zum weiteren Kurs der Finanzpolitik (Donnerstag) erwartet. Aber auch die neuesten Zahlen zur Oktober-Inflationsentwicklung (Mittwoch) dürften auf ein großes Interesse stoßen. [mehr]
9. November 2022
The next iteration of UNFCC’s Conference of Parties, COP 27 is taking place in Egypt. As part of the Global South and home to one of world’s most diverse marine life, the location of Sharm-El-Sheikh in Egypt is quite relevant to this year’s conference. The event serves as the United Nation’s (UN) annual Climate Change summit and is intended to bring ~200 countries together to accelerate action towards goals of the Paris Agreement (2015) and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. [mehr]
7. November 2022
Amidst the backdrop of rampant food inflation, this year’s COP27 in the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh (November 6-18) will be critical. That is because food inflation has been stronger than overall inflation. In fact, in March the US hit an inflection point when food and beverages CPI outpaced broader CPI. This is not just a US issue. The food inflation problem is a global phenomenon. [mehr]
2. November 2022
Perry Kojodjojo and Oliver Harvey from Deutsche Bank Emerging Market Research discuss the recently published EM Currency and Local Markets Handbook. The new and revitalised handbook covers over 30 local EM markets in detail, covering liquidity, market structure and regulations in FX, local bonds and IRS, as well as targeted descriptions of monetary policy and market participants. The Handbook is designed to be an essential tool for institutional and corporate clients in navigating an increasingly complex and fragmented EM regulatory and macro environment, with new sections on unconventional monetary policy by EM central banks, new markets such as Kenya and Pakistan and a discussion of the evolving EM market landscape. [mehr]
1. November 2022
Global sales of semiconductors reached an all-time high in 2021. At the same time, global tensions and growing awareness of the fragility of supply chains have led to a reassessment of the strategic importance of global supply chains and semiconductors. We use our Structural Semiconductor Sales Model (3SM) to explore the extent to which government initiatives on digital sovereignty in the US, Europe, and Asia will impact chip manufacturing capacities. In doing so, we calculate structural (i.e., non-cyclical) supply and demand for the period up to 2030. Assuming a continuation of historical supply and demand trends and a further tightening of the ratio of sales to investments (sales-to-capex ratio), it is our forecast that a huge structural demand gap will emerge in 2030 that cannot be closed by the government subsidy programs announced to date. From this perspective, today’s temporary supply chain issues may overlap with or be succeeded by structural shortages. [mehr]
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