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836 Dokumente
14. Mai 2018
Developments in artificial intelligence and robotics have far-reaching economic and sociopolitical consequences, with some of them already materialising today. Still, the implications of further progress in these fields are not well understood. Economies around the world are likely to be impacted differently by the diffusion of AI technologies and robotics as wealthy industrial countries might increasingly “re-shore” production. To forge ahead and maximise the benefits for economies and societies, a balance needs to be found globally between successfully promoting key technologies and industries and avoiding the risk of rising protectionism and "knowledge wars". As the pace of technological change and the related launch of new business models are unlikely to slow, the ability of the state and regulators to keep pace is challenged. [mehr]
10. Mai 2018
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy in the Month Ahead: The source of the recent correction is benign: a repricing of US growth with the EU still poised to grow above potential. With few exceptions (such as Turkey and Argentina) EM inflation remains mostly near or below targets so that forex (FX) weakness is unlikely to trigger meaningful CB responses that could disrupt EM growth – which has yet to catch up with DM. However, USD strength poses a more binding and direct risk of tighter credit conditions for EM than US yields. Still, we would need to see EUR/USD closer to 1.05 for credit conditions to bind. [mehr]
10. Mai 2018
The Panmunjom Declaration by the two Koreas reiterates their earlier calls not only for a permanent peace and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but also for economic cooperation as set forth in the 2007 Declaration. The latter identifies various infrastructure projects that would see South Korea integrated into the Eurasian continent through North Korea. These could result in significant cuts to South Korea's transportation and fuel costs. Moreover, broader economic cooperation between the two Koreas would give South Korea access not only to North Korea's cheap, literate, and highly organized labor but also its vast natural resources. Although the Panmunjom Declaration also calls for disarmament of the two Koreas, any significant progress in this area, as well as in broader economic cooperation, depends on a potential US-NK nuclear deal. Given past experience, the negotiation and implementation of a US-NK agreement is likely to take many months at least. In this report, we discuss potential benefits that South Korea could enjoy from economic cooperation with North Korea. [mehr]
8. Mai 2018
Weaker recent data – too early to throw in the towel, but 2018 GDP forecast cut to 2%. Although German Q1 GDP growth now looks like reaching around ¼% qoq, we still expect some positive payback in Q2, as some temporary factors depressing activity should disappear. Corporate investment spending will be key for growth in the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, signals from proxy indicators have become somewhat mixed recently too. Notwithstanding a likely, albeit limited, Q2 rebound in activity, the strong drop in the expectations' component of the ifo business climate suggests that we have probably passed the peak in qoq growth rates in the current cycle. Due to the weaker Q1 we have lowered our GDP forecast for 2018 from 2.3% to 2.0%. (Also included in this issue: industrial producer and import prices, labour migration, fiscal policy) [mehr]
8. Mai 2018
Schwächere Daten sind noch kein Grund, das Handtuch zu werfen, trotzdem haben wir unsere BIP-Prognose auf 2% gesenkt. Deutschlands BIP dürfte im ersten Quartal um rund ¼% gg. Vq. gestiegen sein. Wir rechnen mit einer wenn auch begrenzten Gegenbewegung in Q2. Im restlichen Jahresverlauf wird das Wachstum entscheidend von den Unternehmensinvestitionen abhängen. Allerdings sind die Signale der Frühindikatoren hier eher uneinheitlich ausgefallen. Der merkliche Rückgang der Erwartungskomponente des ifo-Index deutet darauf hin, dass die Quartalswachstumsraten im laufenden Zyklus ihren Höchststand überschritten haben. Daher haben wir unsere Wachstumsprognose für das Gesamtjahr von 2,3% auf 2% gesenkt. (Weitere Themen in dieser Ausgabe: Erzeuger- und Importpreise in der Industrie, Arbeitsmigration, EZB) [mehr]
2. Mai 2018
With trillions in currencies exchanging hands every day, foreign exchange is indisputably the world’s largest and most liquid financial market. Yet in spite of its size, this report argues that it is also likely to be the least "efficient" compared to other asset classes. [mehr]
2. Mai 2018
Tagtäglich werden Währungen in Billionenhöhe gehandelt. Der Devisenmarkt ist daher zweifelsohne der größte und liquideste Finanzmarkt der Welt. Wie diese Studie zeigt, ist er jedoch trotz seiner Größe wohl auch der am wenigsten effiziente Markt, jedenfalls im Vergleich zu anderen Assetklassen. [mehr]
26. April 2018
Nach wie vor stehen die Märkte im Bann der Ende Januar einsetzenden Korrektur. Wie sehr lässt sich am lustlosen Handel ablesen. Zwar mussten die wichtigsten Aktienindizes keinen weiteren kräftigen Rücksetzer hinnehmen. Gleichwohl notieren sie weiterhin nahe ihren Jahrestiefständen. Auch wenn die Rahmenbedingungen nach wie vor robust sind, geopolitische Spannungen und die Sorgen wegen eines drohenden Handelskrieges haben ihre Spuren hinterlassen, ebenso wie die befürchtete Abkühlung der Weltwirtschaft und idiosynkratische Probleme im Technologiesektor. [mehr]
23. April 2018
Markets have been on their toes since the correction that started at end-January. Listless trading certainly reflects this malaise: major equity indexes have not suffered another sharp selloff but nevertheless remain near their year-to-date lows. While fundamentals remain robust, geopolitics and trade war fears, concerns over slowing global growth, and idiosyncratic issues in the tech sector have all weighed. [mehr]
23. April 2018
To what extent does a social media storm influence stock prices? Has the stock market fully priced bad news? Could you predict whether a data protection breach would have a material impact on the affected company’s stock price? [mehr]