David Folkerts-Landau

The AI hype cycle is in overdrive. It feels like the volume of text generated by ChatGPT over the past six months has almost been matched by the volume of hyperbole about how foundation models will change the world. For once the hype is (mostly) justified. Generative AI is not another metaverse or, for that matter, another crypto currency. But it will change the world – for better and for worse. [more]

We are undergoing a paradigm shift in macroeconomics. Consensus forecasts have been consistently wrong over the last decade, and over the last couple of years alone they underestimated the scale of the pandemic rebound, the inflationary impact of the stimulus packages, and the fact they weren’t transitory. [more]

DB Economists led by David Folkerts-Landau publish flagship global update. [more]

Deutsche Bank Research shares economic predictions over the next two years. [more]

This paper examines the potential for higher inflation and a return of boom/bust cycles over the next few years.
The report notes the very role of government in the economy is undergoing its biggest shift in 40 years manifested in the receding fear of inflation and rising levels of government debt that shaped a generation of policymakers. Replacing it is the perspective that economic policy should now prioritise broader social goals.
At its heart the research report debates whether inflation is transitory or the pursuit of these important social priorities by governments will mean inflation will have longer-term and far reaching implications for the health of the global economy. Either way, higher inflation is coming and policymakers are about to face their toughest battle in 40 years. [more]

David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist & Global Head of Research and Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics have just published an updated outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The report is titled ‘Goldilocks with Inflation Risk’ and outlines how Goldilocks could be about to enter the global economy as conditions appear just right for strong growth. [more]

The quick development of highly effective vaccines and, of course, expectations of huge fiscal stimulus in the US had made investors optimistic about global growth. However, their hopes were recently dampened as vaccination campaigns were slow to start and, in Europe, experienced supply problems. Furthermore, concerns about more infectious COVID mutations have led to prolonged and more restrictive lockdowns which have weighed on business and consumer sentiment. That has stopped the equity market uptrend for now. [more]

Germany remains an anchor of steadiness with an undisputed role as leader in Europe and is the only country that comes close to being on a par with America. This story of success is based on many structural factors, some of which complement and mutually reinforce each other. We group them as follows: (1) Macropolicies focused on stability and growth (2) Institutions grounded in German ‘ordoliberalism’ (3) Global companies with unique structures (4) An equitable system of social security and cooperative social partners (5) A long-term perspective by companies and citizens with the willingness to forgo immediate reward – in our view the most important factor in the success. The combination of innovative, multinational companies, functioning institutions and highly skilled workers will, in our view, maintain Germany’s competitiveness and prosperity into the future. German politicians are therefore confronted with the increasing challenge of holding the eurozone together. However, if anti-euro movements gain the upper hand in key partner countries, thereby increasing the disruptive risks, there may be a reassessment in Germany of the euro’s costs and benefits. [more]

It was obvious that the Chinese government was not amused when, in light of the ever-expanding list of German technology companies being bought up by Chinese investors, the German Minister of Economic Affairs Sigmar Gabriel spoke of the lack of reciprocation in Chinese investment conditions for German companies. According to press reports, in the first half of this year alone, Chinese companies invested at least EUR 8 billion in German companies. [more]

While European central bankers commend themselves for the scale and originality of monetary policy since 2012, this self-praise is increasingly unwarranted. The reality is that since Mr Draghi’s infamous “whatever it takes” speech in 2012, the eurozone has delivered barely any growth, the worst labour market performance among industrial countries, unsustainable debt levels, and inflation far below the central bank’s own target. While the positive case for European Central Bank intervention is weak at best, the negative repercussions are becoming overwhelming. This paper outlines the five darker sides to current monetary policy. [more]

There is consensus among economists, politicians and commentators that America needs a massive infrastructure investment programme – even the two presidential candidates agree. In the name of
balance, our lead feature sets out the counter argument. [more]

What this victory for the Leave campaign ends up meaning for the future of Britain is debatable. What is not in doubt is that Europe without its brightest star will be a darker place. Adding to the gloom is the fact this was avoidable. Britain voting to go it alone mirrors a wider distrust in the European project – a manifestation of its weak economic situation. [more]