1. Research

Jim Reid

Research Stratege

Multi-Asset Research

Adresse:
Deutsche Bank AG, Filiale London
IB - Research
Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street
EC2N 2DB London

Kontakt
Deutsche Bank Research

Analysen und Studien von Jim Reid

127 Dokumente
    
28. November 2023

World Outlook: The Race Against Time...

Region:
International
Thema:
Makroökonomie
Autor:
David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
2
In our World Outlook for 2024, we outline how we’ve had a fairly consistent macro narrative over the past 2 3 years and we continue to see this as a classic policy led boom bust cycle that will culminate in a US recession. Ultimately, the impact of rapid rate hikes are yet to take effect in full, and QT is still continuing in the background. That will make early 2024 a challenging environment, and we expect a mild US recession in H1 2024. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, we think that a mild recession has already begun that will stretch into the start of 2024. [mehr]
23. Oktober 2023

Ein wolkiger Berggipfel

Region:
International
Autor:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
Weltwirtschaftlicher Ausblick
3
In den letzten Monaten haben sich die Argumente für eine weiche Landung in den USA mehr und mehr verdichtet, da die Inflation gesunken ist, ohne dass es zu großen Spannungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt gekommen ist. Gleichzeitig wird die Weltwirtschaft nun von mehreren Gegenwinden getroffen, und das Umfeld ist fragil, da die Renditen für Staatsanleihen weltweit mehrjährige Höchststände erreicht haben. [mehr]
20. September 2023

The History (and Future) of Recessions

Region:
International
Autor:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
5
The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [mehr]
23. Juni 2023

Die Uhr tickt

Region:
International
Autor:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
Weltwirtschaftlicher Ausblick
7
Wir vertreten bereits seit zwei bis drei Jahren die Auffassung, die USA bewegten sich auf den ersten durch politische Entscheidungen ausgelösten Boom-Bust-Zyklus seit mindestens vier Jahrzehnten zu. Die Hauptursache für die aktuellen Inflationsraten ist vor allem in einer expansiven Fiskal- und Geldpolitik zu suchen, und inzwischen werden die Zinsen aggressiv angehoben, um den Preisauftrieb unter Kontrolle zu bringen. Es wäre eine historisch einmalige Leistung, wenn eine harte Landung vermieden würde. [mehr]
15. Juni 2023

The clock is ticking

Region:
International
Autor:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
The House View - Snapshot
8
We have consistently argued over the last 2-3 years that the US is heading for its first genuine policy-led boom-bust cycle in at least four decades. The inflation we see was induced largely by expansive fiscal and monetary policy, and the aggressive rate hikes needed to tame that have now materialised. Avoiding a hard landing would be historically unprecedented. [mehr]
13. Juni 2023

World outlook: The waiting game...

Region:
International
Autor:
Jim Reid, Mark Wall, Matthew Luzzetti
Podzept (Podcast series)
9
Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start to hit. That weak outlook is evident elsewhere too, and their forecasts don’t expect any G7 country to grow by more than 0.8% in 2024. However, when it comes to the long term they are very enthusiastic about the prospects of AI changing the nature of our economies in the years ahead, which could offer some optimism after a very challenging start to the decade. [mehr]
7. Juni 2023

World Outlook: The Waiting Game…

Region:
International
Autor:
David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
10
Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start to hit. That weak outlook is evident elsewhere too, and their forecasts don’t expect any G7 country to grow by more than 0.8% in 2024. However, when it comes to the long term they are very enthusiastic about the prospects of AI changing the nature of our economies in the years ahead, which could offer some optimism after a very challenging start to the decade. [mehr]
8. März 2023

The lessons of history: which historic period is most like today?

Region:
International
Autor:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
12
Something we’re often asked is which era in history is most like this one. Perhaps the obvious answer is the 1970s, given the energy shock and high inflation. Others have pointed to the late-90s and early-2000s, when the dot com bubble burst and big tech valuations fell substantially. Or maybe it’s more like the 1960s, another era where policymakers moved to fine-tune
economies amidst low unemployment, but which saw inflation get increasingly out of control. [mehr]
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