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Why the speed of impending Fed policy tightening could surprise

19. Januar 2022

Why the speed of impending Fed policy tightening could surprise

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Autor:
Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Online 
In a new report Peter Hooper, Head of Global Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, explain that in recent months the Fed has pivoted toward a more aggressive path of exiting from its current ultra-accommodative pandemic emergency policy stance. They highlight that their view has also become considerably more hawkish, with their baseline expecting liftoff in March, four total rate hikes this year, and a rapid drawdown in the balance sheet beginning in Q3. The central message of the note is that we could be in for an even bigger hawkish surprise in the months ahead. [mehr]

Weitere Dokumente zum Thema "International"

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Reshoring's impact on markets and economies

21. März 2023
Region:
International
Autor:
Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Podzept (Podcast series)
74
What happens when geo-political tensions create a sense of insecurity in corporate CEOs? One result is that some are reshoring. This applies to both manufacturing and services – both supply chains and operations. In this podcast, Luke Templeman and Olga Cotaga discuss how to identify the reshoring theme and how it has accelerated dramatically over the last couple years. In addition, they consider some of the countries that are best placed to capitalise on the trend and how investors can think about the effects on asset allocation. [mehr]

AI & The Five Ws: Why, What, Who, When, Where?

21. März 2023
Region:
International
Autor:
Adrian Cox, Marion Laboure
Thematic Research
75
Artificial Intelligence arguably came to life for the general population with the release of the accessible chatbot ChatGPT three months ago, but the technology and opportunities likely remain a mystery to many. Following March 14, 2023 release of GPT-4, an update to the technology underlying ChatGPT, we publish a new Chartbook on Artificial Intelligence and address the five Ws: Why, What, Who, When, and Where. [mehr]

Halbleitermarkt: Wie lange werden die globalen Umsätze noch fallen?

17. März 2023
Region:
International
Thema:
Digital
Autor:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Möbert
Aktueller Kommentar
76
Momentan schrumpfen die weltweiten Umsätze für Halbleiter. Das Momentum war im Dezember 2022 immer noch negativ, die weltweiten Verkäufe fielen um 4,4% pro Monat, der stärkste Rückgang im aktuellen Abwärtszyklus seit Juni 2022.

Die Schlüsselfrage dieses Aktuellen Kommentars ist es, wann die Rezession enden wird. Mehrere Entwicklungen deuten auf einen anhaltenden Abwärtszyklus hin – zumindest für die nächsten Quartale. Da der Absatz von Halbleitern stark mit dem Welthandel korreliert, gehen wir davon aus, dass die Nachfrage wieder anziehen wird, sobald sich die Aussichten für die Weltwirtschaft allmählich verbessern. [mehr]

The lessons of history: which historic period is most like today?

8. März 2023
Region:
International
Autor:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
79
Something we’re often asked is which era in history is most like this one. Perhaps the obvious answer is the 1970s, given the energy shock and high inflation. Others have pointed to the late-90s and early-2000s, when the dot com bubble burst and big tech valuations fell substantially. Or maybe it’s more like the 1960s, another era where policymakers moved to fine-tune
economies amidst low unemployment, but which saw inflation get increasingly out of control. [mehr]

The Future of Payments: Series 4 - Part I. Digital assets: The end of magical thinking?

27. Februar 2023
Region:
International
Thema:
Digital
Autor:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure
Corporate Bank Research
80
In the first part of series 4 of our Future of Payments series, Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace take a look at how the end of a rare macroeconomic environment, featuring near-zero interest rates, stimulus packages, and excess liquidity, could clean the market of bad actors, much like the dot-com bubble did two decades ago. [mehr]

16 themes driving markets and economies

24. Februar 2023
Region:
International
Autor:
Adrian Cox, Luke Templeman
Podzept (Podcast series)
81
How do we identify the key themes that are driving markets and economies, and also incorporate their impact into investment and corporate decisions? Adrian Cox asks Luke Templeman about his latest report ’16 themes driving markets and economies’. It highlights the top themes and explains how applying a common framework across different themes is necessary to assess how those themes can affect each other. “You can read something written by intelligent people on theme A and then theme B, and they might make sense individually, but they may overlap in ways that are mutually exclusive. That’s what really interests me”, says Templeman. [mehr]

Q&A with Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace

21. Februar 2023
Region:
International
Autor:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace
Q&A with
83
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace is a Thematic Research Analyst. In our "Q&A with…" series she discusses the highlights from the most recent edition of The House View Snapshot – including its AI generated cover image. She also shares her favourite experience since joining the Deutsche Bank Graduate programme last year. [mehr]

Der Geldhahn wird weiter zugedreht

21. Februar 2023
Region:
International
Autor:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
Weltwirtschaftlicher Ausblick
84
Nach mehreren Prognosesenkungen hat weltweit seit der Jahreswende wieder ein Aufschwung eingesetzt. In Europa z.B. haben sich die Erdgaspreise in den vergangenen Monaten mehr als halbiert, und eine Rezession im Euroraum steht unseres Erachtens nicht mehr unmittelbar bevor. Derweil hat China nach der Pandemie eine raschere Öffnung als weithin erwartet durchgeführt, weshalb wir unsere Prognosen nach oben korrigiert haben. Und in den USA, für die wir weiterhin eine Rezession in H2 prognostizieren, ist die Arbeitslosenquote auf einen 53-Jahres-Tiefstand gefallen. [mehr]
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