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Why the speed of impending Fed policy tightening could surprise

19. Januar 2022

Why the speed of impending Fed policy tightening could surprise

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Autor:
Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Online 
In a new report Peter Hooper, Head of Global Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, explain that in recent months the Fed has pivoted toward a more aggressive path of exiting from its current ultra-accommodative pandemic emergency policy stance. They highlight that their view has also become considerably more hawkish, with their baseline expecting liftoff in March, four total rate hikes this year, and a rapid drawdown in the balance sheet beginning in Q3. The central message of the note is that we could be in for an even bigger hawkish surprise in the months ahead. [mehr]

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Q&A with Yi Xiong

23. Mai 2022
Region:
International
Autor:
Yi Xiong
Q&A with
138
In a new ‘Q&A with’ Yi Xiong, Chief Economist, Asia reviews China’s recent economic performance and shares his insights on what policy makers need to do to stabilize the economy. [mehr]

New Podcast: Why a recession by end-2023 should be the base case

11. Mai 2022
Region:
International
Autor:
Matthew Barnard, Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Thematic Research
140
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year. [mehr]

Why a recession by end-2023 should be the base case

11. Mai 2022
Region:
International
Autor:
Matthew Barnard, Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Podzept (Podcast series)
141
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year. [mehr]

Declining cost of FX hedges creates opportunities to raise hedge ratios

29. April 2022
Region:
International
Autor:
Bryant Xu, Malika Sachdeva
Corporate Bank Research
143
Deutsche Bank Research has launched a new series of Asia Corporate Strategy Notes for our corporate clients, focusing on risk management recommendations in currency and rates markets.

The first report in this series argues that corporations should take advantage of declining Asia FX hedging costs to raise USD and EUR hedge ratios. [mehr]

Vor einer harten Landung

29. April 2022
Region:
International
Autor:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
Weltwirtschaftlicher Ausblick
144
Die Gewitterwolken über der Weltwirtschaft werden immer schwärzer. Nach Russlands Invasion der Ukraine stellen sich grundlegende Fragen zu Europas Abhängigkeit von russischer Energie und zur geopolitischen Stabilität des Kontinents. Der daraus resultierende, deutliche Rohstoff-preisanstiegkurbelt die ohnehin über dem Zielwert liegende Inflation zusätzlich an. Damit besteht ein ernsthaftes Risiko, dass sich die längerfristigen Inflationserwartungen aus ihrer Verankerung lösen. [mehr]
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