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Hoffnung am Horizont

9. Dezember 2020
Im Vergleich zum September haben wir unsere Prognosen für die Weltwirtschaft noch einmal angehoben, da es in den vergangenen Wochen unerwartet positive Nachrichten über potenzielle Impfstoffe gab. Der Wirkungsgrad der Impfstoffe liegt am oberen Rand der Erwartungen. Damit könnte die Rückkehr zur Normalität sehr viel rascher erfolgen als noch vor einem Monat vermutet – und dadurch schwinden Befürchtungen, dass wir uns möglicherweise an das Virus gewöhnen müssen. Bis Ende 2021 wird das Alltagsleben möglicherweise nicht mehr stark beeinträchtigt sein. [mehr]

Weitere Dokumente zum Thema "International"

331 (49-60)
19. Januar 2022
In a new report Peter Hooper, Head of Global Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, explain that in recent months the Fed has pivoted toward a more aggressive path of exiting from its current ultra-accommodative pandemic emergency policy stance. They highlight that their view has also become considerably more hawkish, with their baseline expecting liftoff in March, four total rate hikes this year, and a rapid drawdown in the balance sheet beginning in Q3. The central message of the note is that we could be in for an even bigger hawkish surprise in the months ahead. [mehr]
19. Januar 2022
Zum Jahresbeginn 2022 drohen von mehreren Seiten Risiken: Die Inflationsraten liegen in den großen Volkswirtschaften deutlich über den Zielwerten und über den Erwartungen vom vergangenen Jahr, die Gesamtnachfrage bleibt lebhaft, die globalen Lieferketten funktionieren noch nicht wieder reibungslos, die COVID-19-Pandemie ist nicht überwunden und das geopolitische Klima trübt sich ein. Abwärtsrisiken sind wahrscheinlicher geworden und für eine sanfte Landung im Jahr 2022 müssen einige günstige Annahmen eintreten – und auch eine Portion Glück könnte nötig sein. [mehr]
13. Januar 2022
As we arrive in 2022, there are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon to grapple with: inflation rates in the major economies remain well above target and well above what the forecasting community expected last year; aggregate demand remains elevated; global supply-chains are still clogged; the Covid-19 pandemic continues to fester; and the geopolitical climate is also darkening. The odds of an accident have risen and the likelihood of a soft landing in 2022 requires some favourable assumptions and a modicum of good luck. [mehr]
20. Dezember 2021
2021 was a record year in steel. We expect three key drivers to support an above-average margin environment over the next two to three years: 1) demand growth in Western markets, 2) policy support in places like China (which constrains both output and exports of steel) and 3) inflation at the tail of the cost curve. [mehr]
20. Dezember 2021
Asian markets have been much more resilient than the other emerging markets of Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) and Latin America in 2021. Whether this endures in 2022 will be determined by whether US equities can withstand the Fed raising rates (tightening), renminbi stability can continue, and benign inflation in Asia can last. [mehr]
20. Dezember 2021
The plot for emerging markets thickens further in 2022. Not just the one with Fed ‘dots’, but also the plot around the vaccination roll outs, the zero Covid strategy in China, the normalization of supply chains, and on (geo)politics, among others. There are likely still multiple twists ahead in this tale, and possibly new factors (like Omicron) to deal with. And with all of that, the answer to whether EM can turn around its structural under-allocation from the last several years as it builds back on its appeal of carry/vol and growth. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks with Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist discussing economic predictions over the next two years. They base their ominous predictions on several factors: Inflation is pushing 6% or more in Europe and the US while central banks continue quantitative easing. A new and more infectious strain of Covid is spreading rapidly as vaccination rates lag. Supply chains remain clogged with delivery times and transport costs near all time highs. Potential populist-driven political turmoil, climactic tempests, and geopolitical storms loom. [mehr]
6. Dezember 2021
Inflation is not transitory, in our view. While its destination might be clear, detours and delays are possible -- as highlighted by last week's Omicron sell-off. Nevertheless, at c.8x earnings, the sector is not priced for imminent interest rate hikes, pointing to upside in case of delivery of interest rate hikes -- the key theme for the sector in 2022. [mehr]