Europe finally catching up on the US?

The banking sector in Europe is benefiting from a set of conditions which have allowed for the strongest bottom-line result on record, even surpassing the pre-financial crisis peak of 2007. Rising interest rates have led to a surge in net interest income, asset quality remains sound and provisions therefore contained, and banks maintain tight cost discipline. Capital and liquidity levels continue to be robust, considerable returns to shareholders notwithstanding. European banks have also caught up with their US peers with regard to profitability ratios, for the first time in many years. Further gains in this benign environment may be harder to achieve though. [mehr]

Um ihre strategische Autonomie zu stärken, drängt die EU auch für den Retail-Zahlungsverkehr auf ein Angebot aus europäischer Hand. Ein privatwirtschaftliches und ein staatliches Projekt werden derzeit vorangetrieben. Während die European Payments Initiative (EPI) auf der bestehenden Infrastruktur für Echtzeitzahlungen aufbaut und ihre digitale Geldbörse (Wallet) Anfang nächsten Jahres am Start sein soll, werden die rechtlichen und technischen Grundlagen für den digitalen Euro noch entwickelt. Da sich beide Lösungen leicht gegenseitig kannibalisieren könnten, würde Europa von einer besseren Koordinierung profitieren. [mehr]

European banks are running at full steam, achieving the best start to a year since the financial crisis – the stress in March notwithstanding. Revenues have been buoyed by exceptional growth in interest income, while provisions for loan losses have fallen back again and costs remain in check. Capital and liquidity positions continue to be very robust, in spite of ample returns to shareholders and TLTRO repayments to the ECB. There are some clouds on the horizon though: interest rate increases are likely coming to an end and loan growth may slow further. [mehr]

Banks’ domestic sovereign exposures in the euro area ballooned during the financial and European debt crises but have markedly declined since then. Still, with 5% of total assets and 76% of capital, they remain considerable and a risk on bank balance sheets, especially in light of the general exemption from capital requirements and concentration limits. Risk parameters differ between national banking markets, and the home bias remains high, at around 80%, as banks hardly diversify into other euro-area debt. The cross-country differences make it difficult for policymakers to agree on a fully mutualized European Deposit Insurance Scheme and thus complete the Banking Union. [mehr]

Recent wobbles in US and European banking markets have been triggered by idiosyncratic issues at some institutions and broader uncertainty about the impact of central banks’ monetary tightening. However, capital and liquidity levels of the banking industry in Europe continue to be very robust. In addition, asset quality and profitability are the strongest since the financial crisis 15 years ago. Nevertheless, the market tensions are likely to result in banks tightening lending conditions for the private sector further and they could fuel discussions about the effectiveness and potential adjustments of some regulations. [mehr]

London ist nach wie vor der führende Finanzplatz für OTC-Zinsderivate mit einem Marktanteil von 46% und einem durchschnittlichen täglichen Handelsvolumen von USD 2,6 Bill. Allerdings hat Großbritannien seit 2019 an Boden verloren – damals lag sein Marktanteil noch bei 51%. Gründe dafür sind sowohl die Abkehr vom Libor als auch die anhaltenden Bemühungen der EU-Behörden, mehr Derivate-Clearing in die EU zu holen. [mehr]

Die Eindämmung der Inflation ist das Hauptziel der EZB. Bleibt die Inflation hoch, könnten weitere Zinserhöhungen zu Verwerfungen auf den Wohnungsmärkten führen. Angesichts ihrer Größe und Bedeutung könnte dies Auswirkungen auf die makrofinanzielle Stabilität haben. [mehr]

In this new video Max discusses the highlights from the third edition of the ‘The Bullwhip Effect’. A series the team launched in November when they turned positive on markets. [mehr]

In a new video Rhea Shah highlights how European retail online brokerage and platform universe all feature in the ‘European online brokers & platforms: Catering for the next-gen investors’ report. The report aims to making it easier for investors and corporates to compare companies in one place. [mehr]

What does the 2023 outlook look like for the European Insurance sector? According to Hadley Cohen, Head of EU Insurance Research the year ahead will have heightened market volatility – not least from widening credit spreads - particularly in the second hald of the year. [mehr]

Climate stress tests have emerged as a key tool for looking into the financial system’s vulnerability to climate risks. Banks’ exposure to climate risks stems from (1) physical risks that are closely related to geography, and (2) transition risks mainly from loans to carbon-intensive sectors. Exercises by the ECB and BoE suggest that banks’ credit losses in a disorderly transition would be higher than in an orderly transition scenario, and even higher in a “hot house world” with unabated global warming. Banks would be able to absorb climate-related losses due to strong capital buffers. Results are subject to data limitations and modelling constraints. So far, climate stress tests are declared learning exercises with no direct implications for capital requirements. However, supervisors are urging banks to set up a comprehensive climate risk management. [mehr]

Sustainability regulation, climate change, investor expectations, and consumer preferences have enhanced ESG related risks and opportunities. As a result, European Banks are putting significant resources towards environmental, social and governance objectives. [mehr]