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New CDU leader Laschet - in contested pole position for Chancellorship

18. Januar 2021
Winning 53% of delegates’ votes, Armin Laschet - the PM of NRW and Merkel loyalist - secured a slim majority in the run-off for the CDU party leadership on Saturday. This does not come as a surprise, as Laschet was widely seen as the candidate with a small lead in a tight race. In the end, having most governing experience and a track record of winning elections probably tipped the scale in favour of Laschet (e.g. the former SPD stronghold NWR in 2017). Being well-connected within the CDU also paid off for him. However, with a mere difference of 55 votes this is no landslide victory, though still a clearer win for the Merkel camp than AKK’s 17-vote win over Merz in 2018. The slim majority is a reflection of the existing divisions within the party, leaving Laschet with the task of bridging those as soon as possible in this decisive super-election year. Norbert Röttgen (coming third in the election) quickly signalled support for Armin Laschet and was elected to the CDU’s steering committee. [mehr]

Weitere Dokumente zum Thema "Superwahljahr 2021"

31 (21-31)
15. April 2021
On Monday, the Green party will present their first chancellor candidate in the 41-year party history. The leadership tandem of Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck is set to decide amongst themselves whom to field as candidate for the September elections, successfully avoiding any semblance of a power struggle. In our view, the odds appear slightly tilted towards Annalena Baerbock. The decision will formally be confirmed at the party convention in June. [mehr]
13. April 2021
The Conservatives’ beauty contest for Merkel’s potential succession is finally coming to a climax. On Sunday, CSU leader Söder threw his hat into the ring to compete with CDU leader Laschet in the race for the conservatives’ chancellor candidacy. With the CDU’s (the bigger sister party) executive body fully united behind Laschet on Monday, the scale has tilted in favour of Laschet. Söder is shying away of calling for all CDU/CSU members’ to cast their vote for the candidacy. This would be a highly confrontational move which would also unduly delay the election campaign entry of the candidate. We expect the final announcement within the course of this week, i.e. before the Greens present their candidate on April 19th. [mehr]
31. März 2021
Merkel’s Conservatives currently face major problems. Approval rates are in free fall as trust in the government’s crisis management has eroded. The CDU/CSU is polling at pre-crisis levels of below 30% fuelling speculation that not only Merkel but the Conservatives in total might not be part of the next government. The announcement of their chancellor candidate is unlikely to turn the tide for the Conservatives. A bold election manifesto on how to bring Germany forward after the deficiencies revealed by the crisis combined with convincing core personal are needed. Coalition options are back in focus with the Greens being the kingmakers in all scenarios. The political talk of the day is a Green-led traffic light coalition also at the federal level. Still, a conservative-green government remains our baseline scenario, but it is not a foregone conclusion anymore. [mehr]
29. März 2021
Mit dem nahenden Ende der Ära Merkel steht Deutschland ganz besonders im Fokus der internationalen Aufmerksamkeit. Und somit auch die Frage nach der zukünftigen Rolle, die Deutschland politisch und ökonomisch in der EU, aber auch global spielen wird. Marion Mühlberger erklärt in dieser neuen Ausgabe von Podzept, auf was es für Deutschland in diesem Jahrzehnt ankommt. [mehr]
24. März 2021
Zum Beginn dieses wichtigen Wahljahres sieht sich Deutschland mit einer zunehmend multipolaren Welt, einer geschwächten liberalen, regelbasierten Weltordnung und raschem technologischen Wandel konfrontiert. Mihilfe einer SWOT-Analyse und vier Szenarien wollen wir eine Diskussion darüber anstoßen, wie sich Deutschlands Wirtschaft in der Ära nach Merkel entwickeln könnte. Für Deutschlands „Geschäftsmodell“ (eine auf den Export gestützte Wirtschaft mit einer starken, innovativen industriellen Basis) bestehen zwei Hauptrisiken: die anhaltende Erosion der liberalen, regelbasierten Handelsordnung und ein Zurückfallen im globalen Wettlauf um die Technologieführerschaft bezüglich KI, grüne Technologie und IoT. Selbstzufriedenheit oder reaktive Politik sind keine Optionen für die neue Regierung – „High-Tech Made in Germany“ könnte sich als ein zu optimistisches Szenario erweisen. Sowohl die Regierung als auch die Unternehmen müssen umfangreiche Reformanstrengungen unternehmen, damit Deutschland sich bestmöglich platzieren kann. Dazu gehören die richtige Allokation von F&E-Mitteln, das Nutzen des Potenzials der Industriedaten und die breite Durchdringung branchenübergreifender Technologien wie KI. [mehr]
15. März 2021
In yesterday’s regional elections in Baden-Wuerttemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), the CDU achieved disappointing results and thus faces a dismal start into this election year. The CDU was up against two extremely popular prime ministers who appeal to voters across the political camps. However, nondescript CDU candidates, allegations around mask procurement deals and growing discontent about pandemic management are behind the heavy defeats. The new CDU party leader Armin Laschet was not able to change the party’s fortunes. Nevertheless, Laschet’s chances for Merkel’s succession remain intact, in our view. While another six months until federal elections is a long time in politics, the state elections serve as a reminder that a conservative-green coalition which is the consensus so far, is not a foregone conclusion. With Merkel’s bonus for the CDU/CSU fading, vaccine problems continuing and the surprising revival of the Liberals, other coalition options for the Greens might open up. [mehr]
10. März 2021
On March 14, regional elections in Baden-Württemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP) will provide the first electoral test for the parties in the run-up to the federal elections. Polls see the ruling Greens in BW, respectively the SPD in RP in the lead, but uncertainty about the polls is higher this time given the fallout from the pandemic. Additional headwinds for the CDU result from a current political outrage over questionable procurement deals of two CDU/CSU Bundestag MPs. The new CDU party leader Laschet is not up for election but the performance of the CDU will of course be (partly) attributed to him. However, as long as the CDU is not experiencing a severe setback compared to its 2016 results, Laschet’s chances of being nominated as the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate remains intact in our view. [mehr]
19. Februar 2021
Deutsches BIP: Robustes Gesamtjahr 2021, trotz Schwächeanfall in Q1. Der länger als
anfänglich erwartete Lockdown, winterbedingte Verluste in der Bauproduktion und durch die
Lieferprobleme bei Chips verursachte temporäre Produktionsstörungen in der
Automobilindustrie haben uns veranlasst, unsere BIP-Prognose für Q1 auf -2% gg. Vq.
abzusenken (von -0,5%). Wir erwarten aber weiterhin eine deutliche Erholung im
Sommerhalbjahr, die von der kräftigen globalen Nachfrage, der extrem expansiven Geld- und
Fiskalpolitik und nicht zuletzt durch die aufgestaute Konsumnachfrage der deutschen
Haushalte getrieben werden sollte. Nach dem Einbruch um 5% in 2020 dürfte das deutsche BIP
im Jahr 2021 um 4% zulegen. [mehr]
23. September 2020
The two August mass demonstrations against the corona measures in Berlin attracted wide media attention and rattled the public. Many felt confirmed in their feeling that the corona crisis is driving society further apart. Current surveys, however, show that 80% of Germans firmly support the government and trust in government is at a record high. Rather, the protests go beyond the corona crisis, which might be a door opener for general system criticism. The causes for criticism and uncertainty are more likely ongoing long-term trends such as the loss of western supremacy, demographic change, climate change or digitalisation. [mehr]
9. Juli 2020
With Germany’s rather successful COVID-19 strategy and the recovery and stimulus packages broadly agreed, the question of Merkel’s successor and the next German federal elections in autumn 2021 are gradually getting closer political attention again. Parties are currently not only preparing for the election, but are also arguing about the electoral law: the present law allowed the Bundestag to grow from 598 mandates to the current record size of 709 mandates, with the 2021 election likely to result in an even bigger number of seats. The Bundestag just failed to pass a reform before the summer break and thus in time for the 2021 elections. However, political and public pressure to find a solution is high and will keep the issue on the political agenda. [mehr]
6. Juli 2020
Deutschland hat die Corona-Pandemie rascher unter Kontrolle gebracht als viele andere Länder. Die Pandemie-bedingten Schäden für die Wirtschaft haben zu einer Kehrtwende in der Fiskalpolitik geführt, aufgrund derer Deutschland die Krise wohl besser überstehen wird als andere Länder – auch wenn die Auswirkungen nichtsdestotrotz beträchtlich sein dürften. Zu dieser deutlich höheren Krisenresilienz haben unseres Erachtens sechs strukturelle Eigenschaften der deutschen Gesellschaft beigetragen. Aufgrund dieser Krisenresilienz dürfte Deutschland nach der Überwindung der Corona-Pandemie eine bessere Position unter den wichtigen Industrieländern einnehmen. Damit dürfte der Druck auf Deutschland bestehen bleiben, auch auf mittlere Sicht großes (finanzielles) Engagement innerhalb der EWU/EU zu zeigen. [mehr]