Video: 2023 Outlook for EU Insurance

Banks’ domestic sovereign exposures in the euro area ballooned during the financial and European debt crises but have markedly declined since then. Still, with 5% of total assets and 76% of capital, they remain considerable and a risk on bank balance sheets, especially in light of the general exemption from capital requirements and concentration limits. Risk parameters differ between national banking markets, and the home bias remains high, at around 80%, as banks hardly diversify into other euro-area debt. The cross-country differences make it difficult for policymakers to agree on a fully mutualized European Deposit Insurance Scheme and thus complete the Banking Union. [mehr]

Recent wobbles in US and European banking markets have been triggered by idiosyncratic issues at some institutions and broader uncertainty about the impact of central banks’ monetary tightening. However, capital and liquidity levels of the banking industry in Europe continue to be very robust. In addition, asset quality and profitability are the strongest since the financial crisis 15 years ago. Nevertheless, the market tensions are likely to result in banks tightening lending conditions for the private sector further and they could fuel discussions about the effectiveness and potential adjustments of some regulations. [mehr]

London ist nach wie vor der führende Finanzplatz für OTC-Zinsderivate mit einem Marktanteil von 46% und einem durchschnittlichen täglichen Handelsvolumen von USD 2,6 Bill. Allerdings hat Großbritannien seit 2019 an Boden verloren – damals lag sein Marktanteil noch bei 51%. Gründe dafür sind sowohl die Abkehr vom Libor als auch die anhaltenden Bemühungen der EU-Behörden, mehr Derivate-Clearing in die EU zu holen. [mehr]

Die Eindämmung der Inflation ist das Hauptziel der EZB. Bleibt die Inflation hoch, könnten weitere Zinserhöhungen zu Verwerfungen auf den Wohnungsmärkten führen. Angesichts ihrer Größe und Bedeutung könnte dies Auswirkungen auf die makrofinanzielle Stabilität haben. [mehr]

In this new video Max discusses the highlights from the third edition of the ‘The Bullwhip Effect’. A series the team launched in November when they turned positive on markets. [mehr]

In a new video Rhea Shah highlights how European retail online brokerage and platform universe all feature in the ‘European online brokers & platforms: Catering for the next-gen investors’ report. The report aims to making it easier for investors and corporates to compare companies in one place. [mehr]

Climate stress tests have emerged as a key tool for looking into the financial system’s vulnerability to climate risks. Banks’ exposure to climate risks stems from (1) physical risks that are closely related to geography, and (2) transition risks mainly from loans to carbon-intensive sectors. Exercises by the ECB and BoE suggest that banks’ credit losses in a disorderly transition would be higher than in an orderly transition scenario, and even higher in a “hot house world” with unabated global warming. Banks would be able to absorb climate-related losses due to strong capital buffers. Results are subject to data limitations and modelling constraints. So far, climate stress tests are declared learning exercises with no direct implications for capital requirements. However, supervisors are urging banks to set up a comprehensive climate risk management. [mehr]

For more than a decade, European banks have sought to catch up and narrow the gap to their US peers. For many years, they were not particularly successful, due to a number of reasons: economic growth in the US outpaced that in Europe, interest rates were consistently higher (and never negative) on the other side of the Atlantic, and restructuring and capital raising needs were greater in Europe which constrained the banks’ ability to expand their business. In the past few years, however, European banks’ performance has indeed improved and they have not just made substantial progress, but also seem well positioned to finally reduce the distance to their US competitors. [mehr]

Sustainability regulation, climate change, investor expectations, and consumer preferences have enhanced ESG related risks and opportunities. As a result, European Banks are putting significant resources towards environmental, social and governance objectives. [mehr]

House prices are cooling off after a pandemic surge. Some markets are more vulnerable than others. Adrian Cox gives a taste of what warning signs to look out for, why the crash of 2008 was different, and what this might mean for the broader economy. [mehr]

The European banking sector is currently enjoying a sweet spot. Recent interest rate increases by central banks in most advanced economies combined with strong credit growth are having a pronounced positive impact on revenues, while loan loss provisions remain fairly low so far, although they have started to climb. Bottom line, growth in administrative expenses, individual banks’ tax and litigation payments as well as Russia-related losses have reduced net income, but the industry is still on track for a decent full-year result. More importantly, fundamentally higher-for-longer interest rates may support banks’ business prospects also in the medium term. [mehr]

With all the talk of gas storage at 91%... new LNG terminals … and billions of public money to be spent on renewable energy… you might think Europe is on the brink of ending its dependency on Russian gas and moving to clean energy.
But we see 10 reasons why this will take longer than expected. [mehr]