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3SM: A structural semiconductor sales model

November 1, 2022

3SM: A structural semiconductor sales model

Region:
Germany
Germany Monitor
Topic:
Digital, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Moebert
PDF 256k
Global sales of semiconductors reached an all-time high in 2021. At the same time, global tensions and growing awareness of the fragility of supply chains have led to a reassessment of the strategic importance of global supply chains and semiconductors. We use our Structural Semiconductor Sales Model (3SM) to explore the extent to which government initiatives on digital sovereignty in the US, Europe, and Asia will impact chip manufacturing capacities. In doing so, we calculate structural (i.e., non-cyclical) supply and demand for the period up to 2030. Assuming a continuation of historical supply and demand trends and a further tightening of the ratio of sales to investments (sales-to-capex ratio), it is our forecast that a huge structural demand gap will emerge in 2030 that cannot be closed by the government subsidy programs announced to date. From this perspective, today’s temporary supply chain issues may overlap with or be succeeded by structural shortages. [more]

More documents from Jochen Moebert

101 (25-36)
    

Climate-neutral building stock by 2050: A highly ambitious goal

March 25, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert
Talking Point
26
Single-family homes have recently been drawn into the discussion about suitable climate-policy measures in Germany. However, arguing about whether and to what extent single-family homes contribute to climate change or consume more resources than multi-family homes simply draws away the attention from the real energy and climate-policy challenges in the building sector. Moreover, the discussion underlines once again that calls for certain climate-policy measures often clash with how millions of people live or would prefer to live. [more]

Outlook for the German residential property market 2021 and beyond: House price cycle could end in 2024

March 24, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Germany Monitor
27
Our analysis suggests that the nationwide price cycle will come to an end this decade. Despite all the uncertainty, we believe the cycle is likely to end in 2024. The fundamental supply shortage should ease off in the coming years. The lower level of immigration during the pandemic is also a contributing factor. If the cycle does in fact end in 2024, we expect nominal house prices to decline for a short period of time based on comparable historical data. If house prices rise again at the historical average of approximately 2.5% per year following the correction phase, we could see an increase of around 24% over the decade, despite the interim price dip. This outlook also includes a look at the eleven German metropolitan regions. [more]

Returns from residential real estate: Red and orange predominate

December 16, 2020
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Chart in Focus
28
The COVID-19 crisis has intensified the lack of profitable low-risk investments, which is why numerous investors probably regard the German residential market as an attractive alternative to the bond markets. Rental returns have been trending downwards for ten years now, and the development looks set to continue until the spread between rental returns and low-risk bond yields has narrowed significantly further. [more]

Outlook 2021 – Contingent on the COVID cycle

December 10, 2020
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
29
The COVID cycle and vaccination progress will drive the economy in 2021. We expect that infection rates will not come down decisively before Q2. By summer vaccination numbers should reach critical mass. A strong recovery starting in Q2 should yield an annual GDP increase of 4.5% after a 5.5% drop in 2020.
All attention on the super election year 2021: Germany is facing federal elections and multiple state elections. Our baseline scenario is a conservative-green government, but coalition talks will significantly test the willingness to compromise on both sides.
(Also in this issue: global trade and exports, private consumption, labour market, equipment and other investment, the German housing market, public finances, inflation, German industry's corona losses) [more]

November lockdown = Q4 GDP knockdown

November 2, 2020
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
30
Q3 GDP surprise: A rear mirror view – but obstacles right in front. With the partial lockdown during November, the economy will almost certainly see another negative quarter, even in an optimistic scenario where restrictions succeed in squashing new infections and will be completely abolished by the end of November. Prepare the German healthcare sector for regional bottlenecks – protect risk groups better: The number of patients in intensive care and hospital capacity is just as important as the number of new infections. We estimate that 400,000 acutely infected patients are the limit for intensive care units. (Also in this issue: inflation outlook, German labour market, corporate insolvencies, German auto industry, global construction industry, German corona policy, open borders in the EU) [more]

More resilient than expected

September 24, 2020
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
31
We have lifted our GDP forecast for 2020 to -5.5% and see the economy expanding by 4.5% in 2021. An important factor is that the rebound during Q2 – when GDP contracted by 9.7% – turned out more dynamic than expected. The momentum carried over into July. Even with some likely short-term moderation in August, we now expect Q3 GDP to increase by 6.0% qoq. Together with a 2.5% expansion in Q4, this should result in an annual GDP drop of “only” 5.5%, compared to the 9% expected in early May at the height of the pandemic in Europe. The higher carry-over lifts our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, despite somewhat weaker momentum in H1 than expected earlier. (Also in this issue: labour market, bilateral exports, fiscal outlook 2020-22, German industry, the race for CDU leadership, and federal election prospects.) [more]

Working from home: Be careful what you wish for

September 9, 2020
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics, Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg
Germany Monitor
32
The corona crisis has forced many employees to work from home. A consensus seems to be emerging that this is becoming the new normal. Many companies have already offered their employees the option to work from home for several days per week, even post-COVID. An enforceable right for employees to work from home would imply that employers must compensate employees for the additional living space required for home offices. In this paper we analyse the long-term implications of such legislation. We find serious side effects, in particular for the real estate market and the labour market. [more]

Global headwinds make continental value chains more attractive

July 20, 2020
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Talking Point
33
The German export sector has had to cope with numerous challenges over the last few years. These include “homemade” problems, above all in the auto industry, but also the shift in US trade policy. Climate change has become an increasingly important issue, too; in fact, it implies massive changes. That is why the long-term trend in many manufacturing sectors appeared unclear even ahead of the coronavirus pandemic. Now, COVID-19 has compounded already existing uncertainties. From our vantage point, a number of reasons support our hypothesis that continental value chains are likely to gain importance. [more]

Youth unemployment pre and post COVID-19

July 14, 2020
Region:
International
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Chart in Focus
34
The unemployment rates of teenagers and young adults were already attracting attention during the financial and euro crisis. The corona crisis has again led to massive distortions on the labour markets in many countries. However, the initial development of the official youth unemployment rate was fairly diverse internationally. In some countries the unemployment rate has even fallen sharply. [more]

Immigration may increase the population up until 2030

July 13, 2020
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Germany Monitor
35
In 2019, net migration to Germany amounted to +327,100, a significant decrease compared to the previous years. Particularly striking is the sharp decline in immigration from Poland and the sharp increase in the number of immigrants from India. In 2020, immigration is likely to collapse due to the COVID-19 crisis. Subsequently, we expect higher number again. The migration over the coming years might be driven by the skilled worker immigration law which came into force in March 2020. Also, the very good epidemiological situation in Germany compared with many other countries might be a pull factor. If net migration then returns to more than 300,000 people per year, the population is likely to rise from 83.2 million today to over 84 million by the early 2030s. [more]

Sounding out the Q2 GDP slump

June 26, 2020
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Kevin Koerner, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
36
How deep is your trough? Daily activity trackers suggest that the economy turned at the end of April as lockdown measures were gradually lifted. But we still expect a double-digit decline in Q2 GDP. The EUR 130 bn fiscal package was somewhat above our earlier expectations but does not change our GDP forecast, especially as still-prevailing pandemic uncertainties might curtail the economic impact of the package. But upside risks to our -9% GDP forecast for 2020 have (somewhat) increased. (Also in this issue: corona pandemic update, German public finances, global trade, German tourism during the corona crisis, German politics goes European) [more]
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