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3SM: A structural semiconductor sales model

November 1, 2022

3SM: A structural semiconductor sales model

Region:
Germany
Germany Monitor
Topic:
Digital, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Moebert
PDF 256k
Global sales of semiconductors reached an all-time high in 2021. At the same time, global tensions and growing awareness of the fragility of supply chains have led to a reassessment of the strategic importance of global supply chains and semiconductors. We use our Structural Semiconductor Sales Model (3SM) to explore the extent to which government initiatives on digital sovereignty in the US, Europe, and Asia will impact chip manufacturing capacities. In doing so, we calculate structural (i.e., non-cyclical) supply and demand for the period up to 2030. Assuming a continuation of historical supply and demand trends and a further tightening of the ratio of sales to investments (sales-to-capex ratio), it is our forecast that a huge structural demand gap will emerge in 2030 that cannot be closed by the government subsidy programs announced to date. From this perspective, today’s temporary supply chain issues may overlap with or be succeeded by structural shortages. [more]

More documents from Jochen Moebert

101 (13-24)
    

War in Ukraine – New realities 2.0

March 4, 2022
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
13
War in Ukraine – slowing but not ending the German recovery. In a moderate economic scenario (which is our new baseline forecast) we expect German GDP to grow by between 2 ½% and 3% (old forecast 4%). Surging energy prices should push the annual inflation rate to around 5 ½% in 2022. Government spending is expected to be ramped up by 1 ¼ and 1 ½ pp, limiting the overall growth loss. In a more severe scenario headline inflation could rise to between 6 ½% and 7%, as oil and gas deliveries are at least temporarily halted. Annual GDP growth should be a meagre 1% to 1 ½%. [more]

Outlook 2022: New realities

December 15, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
14
4% GDP growth in 2022, despite technical recession in winter half. A synchronous acceleration should result in annual GDP growth of 4%. In 2023, quarterly GDP growth will slow towards trend. In fiscal policy ambitious spending plans and debt brake commitment lead to open funding questions. Based on the previous fiscal regime, the fiscal deficit is set to narrow considerably. Still, the new government’s big spending plans, which are not yet quantifiable, could drive deficits considerably higher. Inflation decelerating from 5%+ rates, but higher core rate more permanent. Carryover effects and cost pressures will keep CPI inflation elevated. In 2023, headline and core rates are unlikely to fall below 2%. German politics 2022: “Team Scholz” will focus on climate protection and sizeable corporate tax allowances for green and digital investments. German EU policy might be less fiscal orthodox and open to a cautious reform of the EU’s fiscal rules. [more]

Supply chain disruptions: Still a risk to the economy and inflation in 2022

October 8, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert
Germany Monitor
15
Never since reunification have industrial companies in Germany complained as much about material bottlenecks as they do at present. In addition to physical shortages of intermediate products, rising prices are also currently problematic for companies. This is reflected in producer prices. In August 2021, they were around 12% higher than a year earlier – the biggest increase since December 1974. The latest development is not a German phenomenon. In many countries around the world, the current economic recovery is being dampened by supply bottlenecks and higher prices. Supply bottlenecks and rising prices for intermediate goods are hampering the economic recovery in the manufacturing sector. Here, new orders in August 2021 exceeded the production level by close to 22%. Overall, we expect supply chain disruptions to keep us busy into 2022, although the low point in the supply crisis may be behind us. [more]

Housing policy concepts in Germany: Only minor overlaps between the plans of left-wing and right-wing parties

September 15, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Germany's super election year 2021, Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Focus Germany
16
In terms of housing policy concepts in Germany, there are only minor overlaps between the plans of left-wing and right-wing parties. The CDU/CSU, the FDP, and the AfD continue to support supply-oriented housing policies. The SPD, the Greens, and the Left prefer demand-oriented approaches. The CDU and the FDP promise to reduce price and rent pressure by providing additional supply and to offer incentives for renovation and retrofitting. People who are living in a rented home and do not want to move will probably find the plans of the SPD, the Left or the Greens attractive. Private households might see the ancillary costs of buying a home decline after the elections, as opposed to large-scale investors. Overall, none of the parties has prepared a comprehensive concept. And none of them has paid attention to what their demands may mean in terms of necessary labour, funds, space, etc. [more]

COVID causes dip in migration: Higher wage pressure likely

July 30, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Focus Germany
17
Net migration towards Germany was much lower in 2020 than pre-COVID. The migration flows from outside of the EU were particularly hampered whereas migration within the EU fell by 'only' 5% compared to 2019. As a consequence, the new demand for housing was much lower than in previous years which helped to reduce the housing shortage. By contrast, the lack of qualified and non-qualified workers in the labour market has become more severe through the pandemic. [more]

Recent floods to have limited impact on growth outlook and election outcome

July 27, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Germany Blog
18
The recent flood caused by heavy rain was among the most severe natural disasters hitting Germany since reunification. More than 170 people lost their lives and many private homes and public buildings, roads and municipal infrastructure were destroyed. Since the flooding occurred in regions with low industrial density, the expected negative impact on overall economic activity, in particular on industrial production, should be relatively limited. Still, the regional impact on agricultural production (such as wine-growing) might be significant. Some of the most recent polls already fully capture post-flood views. As expected, there is no big shift in voter preferences. The events will likely confirm voters' previous choices. [more]

German office market: Traditional office will remain at the centre of economic activity

June 17, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg
Focus Germany
19
The demand for office space will be largely shaped by the development of home office over the decade. There is no doubt that remote work has the potential to reduce demand for office space substantially and uncertainty remains unusually high. But our projections show that even with a strong expansion of home office, demand for office space could remain high. We continue to expect that the traditional office will remain the hub of economic life. [more]

Midyear review: Real economy on track, but higher inflation

June 10, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
20
Q2 GDP should be o.k., despite April’s little stumble. Strong external demand and depleted finished goods inventories suggest a strong bounce back once current supply constraints ease. Consumers’ economic outlook and income expectations are improving. Together with an expected normalization of the savings rate that should provide a strong underpinning for consumption growth. We stick to our Q2 GDP forecast of close to 2% qoq and 4% for the whole year. The rate of inflation has been rising sharply since the start of 2021. With price dynamics continuing to outstrip expectations and given the prospect of stronger economic recovery in the summer, we now expect the annual average CPI inflation rate to rise to 2.8% in 2021, monthly numbers could even touch 4%. [more]

Economy ready for take-off – election polls hanging in the balance

May 7, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021, Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
22
The catalysts for a strong expansion of the German economy during the summer half are falling into place: Global demand is picking up strongly and the vaccination momentum is finally accelerating. Given the slightly smaller than expected drop of Q1 GDP (-1.7%) and upward revisions to H2 2020, we have lifted our GDP forecast for 2021 from 3.7% to 4.0%. Meanwhile election polls are hanging firmly in the balance. The nominations of Annalena Baerbock and Armin Laschet as chancellor candidates have clearly helped the Greens to gain ground. The current shift in voters’ sentiment allows for a whole bunch of coalition options. [more]

Working from home potential only half fulfilled in Germany. Is there a productivity paradox?

April 28, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg
Talking Point
23
We compare the current debate with the discussion about the introduction of the computer in the 1980s. Then as now, positive and negative effects on a macroeconomic level could almost cancel each other out at first. Accordingly, we anticipate that the question of productivity is only likely to be answered in some years’ time. [more]

German rent cap: Probably only under a green-red-red federal government (which seems unlikely) – but even then, water would still not flow uphill

April 19, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Germany's super election year 2021, Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Talking Point
24
After Berlin's rent cap was declared unconstitutional by the Federal Constitutional Court, Germany is discussing the consequences. Will there be a nationwide rent cap after the federal election in September? This is one of the most frequent and potentially most important questions for many landlords and tenants. [more]
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