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Outlook 2022: New realities

December 15, 2021

Outlook 2022: New realities

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
PDF 1M
4% GDP growth in 2022, despite technical recession in winter half. A synchronous acceleration should result in annual GDP growth of 4%. In 2023, quarterly GDP growth will slow towards trend. In fiscal policy ambitious spending plans and debt brake commitment lead to open funding questions. Based on the previous fiscal regime, the fiscal deficit is set to narrow considerably. Still, the new government’s big spending plans, which are not yet quantifiable, could drive deficits considerably higher. Inflation decelerating from 5%+ rates, but higher core rate more permanent. Carryover effects and cost pressures will keep CPI inflation elevated. In 2023, headline and core rates are unlikely to fall below 2%. German politics 2022: “Team Scholz” will focus on climate protection and sizeable corporate tax allowances for green and digital investments. German EU policy might be less fiscal orthodox and open to a cautious reform of the EU’s fiscal rules. [more]
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More documents about "Real estate"

60 Documents
    

"Midterm review" – reforms to tackle the new growth challenge

July 25, 2023
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
Focus Germany
2
Germany’s growth is under pressure from renewed cyclical and structural headwinds. In this edition of Focus Germany we introduce our new Nowcast Model for German GDP, predicting that the German economy should have expanded in Q2, but that risks for activity in H2 are increasing. We take the summer break in Berlin as an opportunity for a midterm review of the traffic-light coalition’s work. In a historic flashback we revisit the challenges Germany was facing when the Economist called it the sick man of the euro and which policy measures transformed the country into an Economic superstar a decade later. We find interesting parallels to today’s situation. [more]

2023 Housing market outlook: Price dip and interest rate peak ahead. Significantly higher prices likely in the long term. Refurbishment costs are taken into account

April 21, 2023
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Germany Monitor
4
The boom is over. Five key arguments lead us to expect only a price dip. Negative real interest rates, inflation protection through real estate, rising rental growth and most importantly a high fundamental supply shortage. In addition, real house prices have already fallen very sharply due to the surge in inflation. CO2 emissions from buildings are increasingly coming into focus. Prices have started to diverge between properties with low and high emissions. This divergence is likely to increase. [more]

The German economy – one year after

March 9, 2023
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
Focus Germany
6
The German economy – one year after. With surprisingly strong hard data for January, chances are rising that GDP might be saved from another decline in Q1. Although not yet our baseline call, this would prevent Germany from going through a technical recession. However, still heightened uncertainty and real income losses due to high inflation will likely keep investment spending and private consumption flatlining in the first half of the year. Hence, we maintain our 0% forecast for 2023 German GDP growth, although upside risks have increased since the start of the year. [more]

German housing market: History suggests it is an inflation hedge

March 1, 2023
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Chart in Focus
7
We calculate a nominal and real return triangle for German house prices from 1970 to 2022. The market offered an inflation hedge in the past. This is in particular true for periods of high inflation as in these periods house prices even exceeded inflation. The huge supply shortage and rising rents are further arguments for a bottoming out of house prices in 2023. [more]

Outlook for global house prices

January 12, 2023
Region:
International
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Adrian Cox, Jon Bell, Michael Hsueh
Podzept (Podcast series)
8
House prices are cooling off around the world after the boom years of historically low interest rates and a pandemic race for space. Countries like Sweden, Canada and Australia, which had the biggest gains, heaviest household debt and highest proportion of variable rate mortgages, are most exposed. In the latest episode of Podzept, Michael Hsueh, FX Strategist and author of the G10 Housing Monitor, Jon Bell, Head of the European Construction and House Building Research, and Adrian Cox, Thematic Strategist, discuss the outlook. [more]

Outlook 2023/24: New global realities

December 19, 2022
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Heike Mai, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
9
We look at the expected recession in the winter half-year 2022/23 and the onset of recovery, how inflation will peak, while the labor market loses momentum and private consumption is hit by the loss of purchasing power. Construction and Capex spending are set to deteriorate. Fiscal policy continues to lean against the headwinds but should normalize somewhat. Loan growth, both with corporates and private households, may slow substantially. In a medium-term perspective, we discuss risks for the manufacturing industry and Germany’s geopolitical and competitive position. [more]

Outlook for the German residential property market 2022 and beyond. Base case: Rising overvaluations, end of the cycle in the near future, subdued price corrections

May 10, 2022
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Germany Monitor
12
We expect the German residential property market cycle to come to an end during the current decade. A combination of our different approaches suggests that, despite the uncertainties, the cycle will probably end in 2024. Prices will not necessarily undergo a massive correction from their peak, our baseline scenario foresees an isolated ending of the cycle. As migration inflows were low and new construction activity has been dynamic during the pandemic, fundamental supply shortages are a thing of the past for many German cities. The current refugee wave will only temporarily weigh on the market. [more]
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