Human capital is the key to growth - Success stories and policies for 2020

August 1, 2005

Human capital is the key to growth - Success stories and policies for 2020

Region:

International

Further research articles

Topic:

Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Stefan Bergheim

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Human capital is the most important factor of production in today's economies - and education is an investment that generates higher incomes in future. The growth stars of the coming years identified in our introductory study base their success on major gains in human capital. The success stories of Spain and South Korea show that political changes can have a lasting impact on human capital. [more]

Deutsche Fassung ➜

How will senior Germany spend their money?

March 27, 2007

Region:

Germany

Analyst:

Claire Schaffnit-Chatterjee

Further research articles

Ageing does not directly impact the total shares of expenditures at the country level, although it will drastically affect the nature of demand within most consumption segments. In fact, economic growth is the main driver of change in the consumption structure, through rising levels of expenditures and shifts in relative prices. (Ageing is indirectly at play here through its effect on income distribution). Another important driver is societal transformation. Our projections show that, when all three drivers are factored in, transport, housing, health care and entertainment take larger expenditure shares at the expense of food.
The main household expenses will remain housing, transport, entertainment, and - still - food. [more]

Brazil: O pais do futuro? Economic scenarios for the next 15 years

May 30, 2006

Analyst:

Markus Jäger

Further research articles

Brazil has made substantial progress towards greater economic stability. A combination of greater macro-stability, increased investment and openness, and gradual economic reform will lead to higher medium-term economic growth. The natural resources sector stands to benefit disproportionately from the on-going structural changes in the world economy. Strong Chinese demand will provide Brazil with a great opportunity to increase exports and growth. High-tech niches where Brazil has achieved a competitive advantage will also benefit. If domestic structural reform continues and macroeconomic stability is maintained, the financial sector will be another "winner". [more]

Live long and prosper! Health and longevity as growth drivers

March 20, 2006

Region:

International

Topic:

Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources

Analyst:

Stefan Bergheim

Further research articles

Life expectancy and health spending have been increasing for decades the world over. This life extension trend is an important engine of growth: investment in education brings higher returns; lower mortality raises population growth. However, the speed and impact of the trend cluster are still underestimated: forecasts of life expectancy and the size of the health sector are probably still too low - making the need for adjustment in the political and business community greater than many people have thought. [more]

Global growth centres 2020: "Formel-G" for 34 economies

March 23, 2005

Region:

International

Topic:

Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Ingo Rollwagen, Jan Hofmann, Marco Neuhaus, Stefan Bergheim

Further research articles

Substantiated, long-run growth forecasts are in the limelight following the New Economy disappointments and repeated crises in the emerging markets. With the help of "Formel-G", we identify the sources of economic long-term growth and generate forecasts for 34 economies until 2020. India, Malaysia and China will post the highest GDP growth rates over 2006-20 according to our "Formel-G" approach. Strong population growth, a rapid improvement in human capital and increasing trade with other countries allow average GDP growth of more than 5% per year in these three countries. Ireland, the USA and Spain are the OECD economies expected to grow most quickly. [more]

Turkey 2020: on course for convergence

January 12, 2005

Analyst:

Markus Jäger

Further research articles

The political and economic impact of EU convergence will be unambiguously positive for Turkey, as it will benefit from continued EU-supervised reforms, increased economic stability and higher foreign investment flows. The banking sector in particular stands to benefit from enhanced stability and higher economic growth, and is likely to experience increased consolidation and foreign participation. This study is to depict plausible scenarios for the Turkish economy in the medium to long term, rather than predict at what point in time accession will actually take place. [more]

Reformstau - causes and remedies

September 18, 2003

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Stefan Schneider

Further research articles

International businesspeople and policymakers increasingly complain that Germany's Reformstau, or reform deadlock, is hampering European and global growth. The prescriptions for a healthier and more dynamic economy have been available for years. Why is Germany not implementing more of them? We identify 10 reasons for the Reformstau at the individual and the institutional level. [more]

Taxation of e-commerce – looking for solutions

August 1, 2002

Region:

International

Analyst:

Antje Stobbe

Further research articles

The internet presents new challenges in taxation. The imposition of a turnover tax on e-commerce is hampered by the difficulties involved in identifying the consumer. It is nearly impossible to apply the destination principle, which is standard practice internationally. In the taxation of profits, international companies might obtain new scope for optimising their tax burden. Both aspects may lead to erosion of the tax base. At present, however, the volume of e-commerce is still too small to trigger serious fiscal problems. [more]

Focus on the new economy and productivity

October 1, 2001

Analyst:

Bernhard Gräf, Jessica Röding

Further research articles

The new economy - trigger of a productivity miracle in the USA, or the product of a strictly statistical
problem that might at least partly strengthen doubts about this controversial phenomenon? There is also
another question that is of key significance when trying to make a proper assessment of productivity
growth in the USA in order to size up longer-term earnings prospects - even though forecasting economic
growth is anything but easy at present. Does the relationship between changes in unemployment and wage
increases continue to exist in the new economy? [more]

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