Research Briefing: New Asian frontier markets

Analyst:

Syetarn Hansakul

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We expect the Asian frontier markets (AFMs) to be on a solid and accelerating growth path over the next five years, with real GDP growth potentially rising to 7-8% annually. All of the countries are expected to be members of the WTO by 2017. Trade at the regional and international levels is expected to deepen and drive growth in these countries. There are some risks to this constructive outlook such as natural catastrophes, political instability or even risks that could arise from rising interdependence with the global economy. Beyond these immediate risks, there are important challenges to tackle such as poverty reduction and protection of the environment and the national heritage. Improvement on these fronts will help the AFMs maintain their attraction for FDI flows. Finally, economic reform will need a more commercially-driven banking sector and financial markets, as well as a robust regulatory regime. [more]

Research Briefing: Privatisation in the euro area – Governments should grasp opportunities

July 31, 2015

Region:

Analyst:

Dieter Bräuninger

Maria Arakelyan, Marion Mühlberger

As a key element of the new reform agenda for Greece stipulated at the latest eurozone summit, privatisation has become a major issue for the southern European country. However, privatisation should be a topic for other governments in the euro area, too, given the high public debt in many countries. Nevertheless, a look at the privatisation policies in selected countries shows different priorities. [more]

CEE corporate bonds: Untapped potential but challenges remain

June 26, 2015

Analyst:

Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) increased sharply in the decade up to 2013, prior to a significant decline in 2014 and Q1 2015 against the backdrop of the Russia crisis. In terms of size the market is small in an international comparison, and concentration in certain countries and sectors is large. Macro stability and adequate legal rights are important factors for market development, and a large and diversified source of demand is a key ingredient. Pension system counter-reforms in CEE may be counterproductive in this respect. [more]

Research Briefing: African revival shifts east

April 24, 2015

Region:

Claire Schaffnit-Chatterjee

Analyst:

There are good reasons to think that the revival in African growth over the last decade has been based on much more than the super cycle in commodities and demand from China. Over the next decade, however, the region’s centre of economic gravity is likely to shift towards the less resource-dependent economies in East Africa. East African countries are economically more diverse and beginning to form a relatively large and well-integrated regional market. Therefore, beyond the likely improvement in their terms of trade, they appear better-placed to deliver the structural economic transformation that will be needed to create jobs for the fast-growing working age population. [more]

Research Briefing: Liquidity is key for the central clearing of derivatives

March 12, 2015

Region:

Banking and financial markets

Topic:

Analyst:

Orçun Kaya

With more and more OTC derivative contracts shifting towards central clearing, the existing risk management and collateralisation practices are changing tremendously. Consequently, market participants’ attention has turned towards the determinants of central clearing. [more]

Presentation: Banking & regulatory trends in Europe

October 22, 2014

Region:

Banking and financial markets

Topic:

Analyst:

Jan Schildbach

Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources

Agricultural value chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: From a development challenge to a business opportunity

April 14, 2014

Topic:

Analyst:

Claire Schaffnit-Chatterjee

Claire Schaffnit-Chatterjee

What about agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa? Is it important to develop the sector or should efforts focus elsewhere? We argue that investments in agriculture and agribusiness are needed and that, ensuring efficient and sustainable agricultural production, they can drive economic growth and poverty reduction as well as fulfil both domestic and global demand for agricultural products. SSA offers both huge agricultural potential and fast-growing markets and there is increasing investor interest along the whole food supply chain. Challenges remain in terms of infrastructure, trade, skills and financing but there is increased commitment from governments and other partners for a sector with strong growth opportunities. [more]

Foreign investment in farmland - No low-hanging fruit

November 13, 2012

Analyst:

Is there a global rush for farmland? Which countries are of interest, to whom, and what are the main drivers? Can it contribute to food security? What are consequences for host countries? We discuss in this paper risks and opportunities associated with foreign investment in farmland as well as ways forward - at a time when there is a strong case for private investment in agriculture. [more]

Presentation: Where public debt is held

August 23, 2012

Region:

Banking and financial markets

Topic:

Analyst:

Jan Schildbach

Research Briefing: Low interest rates pressuring US bank margins

May 11, 2012

Region:

Analyst:

Jan Schildbach

With interest rates likely to remain at depressed levels for years to come in most developed banking markets, the focus is on the impact this may have on interest margins and banks’ net interest income. Historical data for the US shows that with a flattening of the yield curve, margins face significant pressure as long-term rates draw closer to short-term rates. This margin compression is exacerbated as funding costs approach the zero bound, while asset yields continue to fall. [more]

Research Briefing: European economic policy – A profile of the coordination mechanisms

May 2, 2012

Region:

Analyst:

Nicolaus Heinen

Europe is adopting a new approach: economic policy coordination in the EU and the eurozone has undergone fundamental reform over the last two years. Now it is conducted via three pillars that address general economic policy, fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances. However, disruption is still caused by exemptions, conflicting objectives and time inconsistencies. The new rule book will only be able gain a good reputation going forward if it is applied rigorously. The pressure of the capital markets will remain a key driver of reform in this regard. [more]

Poised for a comeback: Bank deposits

May 2, 2012

Region:

Banking and financial markets, Macroeconomics

Topic:

Analyst:

Jan Schildbach, Sophie Ahlswede

Deposits are the most important source of funding for European banks, providing about 60% of the total. At the same time, private-sector deposits tend to be less volatile than other funding instruments. The importance of deposits is set to increase even further in the medium term because of new regulatory requirements and higher levels of risk aversion at banks. Boosting deposit volumes could enable moderate growth in bank assets and thus also an increase in lending to the private sector over the coming years. However, this would require that households hold a larger share of their savings in the form of deposits and invest a smaller proportion in insurance policies. [more]

US car market: Returning to its previous size

January 20, 2012

Region:

Topic:

Sectors and resources

Analyst:

Eric Heymann