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Brazil 2020: Economic political scenarios - update

November 27, 2009
Brazil’s considerable improvement in economic fundamentals allowed the economy not only to recover quickly from the global financial crisis but also to put the country on a higher medium-term growth trajectory. According to our revised medium-term forecasts, medium-term GDP growth is likely to average 4.25% p.a., sustained by solid domestic demand growth. Based on these trends and against the background of lower interest rates and continued financial deepening, the domestic financial sector is set to thrive in the coming years. The 2010 presidential elections may bring about a slight shift in economic policy but economic stability is likely to be preserved. [more]

More documents contained in "Further research articles"

55 (19-30)
November 13, 2012
19
Is there a global rush for farmland? Which countries are of interest, to whom, and what are the main drivers? Can it contribute to food security? What are consequences for host countries? We discuss in this paper risks and opportunities associated with foreign investment in farmland as well as ways forward - at a time when there is a strong case for private investment in agriculture. [more]
October 18, 2012
20
We expect the Asian frontier markets (AFMs) to be on a solid and accelerating growth path over the next five years, with real GDP growth potentially rising to 7-8% annually. All of the countries are expected to be members of the WTO by 2017. Trade at the regional and international levels is expected to deepen and drive growth in these countries. There are some risks to this constructive outlook such as natural catastrophes, political instability or even risks that could arise from rising interdependence with the global economy. Beyond these immediate risks, there are important challenges to tackle such as poverty reduction and protection of the environment and the national heritage. Improvement on these fronts will help the AFMs maintain their attraction for FDI flows. Finally, economic reform will need a more commercially-driven banking sector and financial markets, as well as a robust regulatory regime. [more]
May 2, 2012
Region:
22
Europe is adopting a new approach: economic policy coordination in the EU and the eurozone has undergone fundamental reform over the last two years. Now it is conducted via three pillars that address general economic policy, fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances. However, disruption is still caused by exemptions, conflicting objectives and time inconsistencies. The new rule book will only be able gain a good reputation going forward if it is applied rigorously. The pressure of the capital markets will remain a key driver of reform in this regard. [more]
May 2, 2012
Region:
23
Deposits are the most important source of funding for European banks, providing about 60% of the total. At the same time, private-sector deposits tend to be less volatile than other funding instruments. The importance of deposits is set to increase even further in the medium term because of new regulatory requirements and higher levels of risk aversion at banks. Boosting deposit volumes could enable moderate growth in bank assets and thus also an increase in lending to the private sector over the coming years. However, this would require that households hold a larger share of their savings in the form of deposits and invest a smaller proportion in insurance policies. [more]
January 20, 2012
Analyst:
24
The US car market is recovering from its deep crisis. Unit sales and production are likely to increase further in 2012 und 2013. In the medium term, previous record levels will be reached again or even exceeded. German producers should benefit from this development. Their market share in light vehicle sales will grow further. This is due to the attractive product range and the bolstering of production facilities in the US. Diesel and hybrid vehicles will expand their market shares in the US over the next few years. Growth in the diesel market in particular would benefit German companies. [more]
November 23, 2011
25
Chinese assets and liabilities have been steadily increasing from 2004 to 2010, congruent with China's economic ascendency and trade integration with the rest of the world. China today is already the world’s second largest net creditor, which, in theory, is an anomaly for a developing country. We look at possible scenarios for China and the world economy until 2015. In all of them, China will continue to accumulate FX reserves, and reserve assets will remain the largest component of China’s overall foreign assets, but the pace of accumulation is likely to slow down. The financial integration of China into the rest of the world will really take off only when portfolio investments are liberalised more boldly compared to the “stop-and-go” approach of recent years. [more]
September 19, 2011
26
Agriculture is both a major emitter of greenhouse gases and a potential key contributor to the mitigation of climate change. Besides lowering emissions, climate-friendly agricultural practices can play a significant role in sequestering carbon. So why is the current debate on mitigating climate change largely ignoring the potential of agriculture and land use? In this paper, we analyse various approaches to realising this potential and discuss some of the challenges involved. We also indicate actions required for transitioning towards a low-carbon agriculture. We show how governments, agricultural producers, the food industry, consumers and the financial sector are all key players in shifting policy and investment priorities. [more]
July 4, 2011
Analyst:
27
CCS is only one pillar in international climate protection policy, but certainly an important one. However, it currently does not seem likely that this pillar will be able to bear its load as planned for the coming two decades. Without CCS, though, the 2°C target would be in even greater jeopardy than it already is. Politicians’ general commitment to CCS and the realisation that the technology can make a valuable contribution to climate protection must therefore be followed by action: first and foremost, further research must be carried out and, second, price signals for CO2 would be required for its implementation. [more]
May 13, 2011
28
Our China-India Chartbook presents a graphical overview of economic and social indicators in both China and India and highlights the changes that have taken place over the past decade. Both countries have experienced strong growth, which has led to improvements in health, education, and poverty reduction. While they emerged unscathed from the global financial crisis, they still face macroeconomic challenges such as containing inflation pressures and reducing external imbalances. Progress has been made on improving infrastructure and strengthening banking sectors. The next decade will likely see both economies continuing to grow strongly, with the sources of growth more evenly balanced between domestic and external demand. [more]
March 10, 2011
29
Food prices are reaching record highs, which raises concerns about spending capacity, hunger, political turmoil and global growth. The current surge in food prices is due to the combination of short-term supply shocks and longer-term structural factors leading to a tight demand-supply balance. In this paper we review the main considerations regarding food price movements and include a discussion on the impact of speculation. [more]
November 24, 2010
30
Although gender balance in leadership is beneficial for companies, it is still far from reality. Given that women account for more than half of the talent available to business today, in a context of skills shortages, such an imbalance is not sustainable. In order to create workplaces maximising the potential of both genders, companies need to alter outmoded corporate attitudes and processes. This includes looking at gender in leadership as a business issue, acknowledging that women are different and incorporating the differences. [more]
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