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Navigating perilous waters

January 13, 2022

Navigating perilous waters

Region:
International
The House View - Snapshot
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
PDF 209k
As we arrive in 2022, there are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon to grapple with: inflation rates in the major economies remain well above target and well above what the forecasting community expected last year; aggregate demand remains elevated; global supply-chains are still clogged; the Covid-19 pandemic continues to fester; and the geopolitical climate is also darkening. The odds of an accident have risen and the likelihood of a soft landing in 2022 requires some favourable assumptions and a modicum of good luck. [more]

More documents contained in "The House View - Snapshot"

42 (25-36)
    

Markets after the recent sell-off

October 16, 2018
Region:
International
Analyst:
Himanshu Porwal, Jim Reid, Quinn Brody
The House View - Snapshot
29
This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key ongoing/upcoming political developments (Brexit, Italy, US mid-term, etc.) and major risks in the rest of 2018. Find also our views on US macro and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. [more]

Mind the (political) hurdles

September 11, 2018
Region:
International
Analyst:
Himanshu Porwal, Jim Reid, Quinn Brody
The House View - Snapshot
30
We’re at the stage of the policy tightening cycle where history suggests a higher likelihood of accidents in financial markets. Recent events support that, with markets buffeted by negative headlines from Italy, Turkey, Argentina, and broader EMs. Although there are idiosyncratic risks in the above, they are being magnified by a persistent, if steady, Fed tightening cycle and an ECB that is tapering towards a QE standstill. Meanwhile Brexit and trade wars bubble along in the background. [more]

Tug of (trade) war

July 25, 2018
Region:
International
Analyst:
Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody
The House View - Snapshot
31
This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk and effects of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]

Trade war tensions

June 27, 2018
Region:
International
Analyst:
Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody, Raj Hindocha
The House View - Snapshot
32
This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]

Supported global growth

May 22, 2018
Region:
International
Analyst:
Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody, Raj Hindocha
The House View - Snapshot
33
After a year of strong and highly synchronised global growth, momentum undeniably slowed this year. This has raised concern over the growth cycle, and the potential impact on risk assets.
However, our global macro view remains positive and we still forecast the global economy to grow robustly this year. We have downgraded our 2018 forecast for the eurozone, which is balanced by an upgrade to our China forecast. In the US, our outlook is unchanged as fiscal policy begins trickling through the economy and the Federal Reserve continues to withdraw accommodation. [more]

Trade wars and more

April 23, 2018
Region:
International
Analyst:
Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody
The House View - Snapshot
34
Markets have been on their toes since the correction that started at end-January. Listless trading certainly reflects this malaise: major equity indexes have not suffered another sharp selloff but nevertheless remain near their year-to-date lows. While fundamentals remain robust, geopolitics and trade war fears, concerns over slowing global growth, and idiosyncratic issues in the tech sector have all weighed. [more]

Slow-burning issues

March 14, 2018
Region:
International
Analyst:
Marcos Arana, Matthew Luzzetti, Michael Hsueh
The House View - Snapshot
35
Robust, broad-based global expansion. Synchronised growth across regions and economies, in many cases at above-trend levels. We expect global growth to accelerate to +3.9% this year, marginally above 2017, as fundamentals remain supportive. We expect the US and eurozone to continue growing above potential, but do not anticipate any further acceleration. In China, we expect growth to slow, and are more worried about inflation and financial risks than consensus. 2018 should mark the peak of the current cyclical expansion; growth should decelerate from 2019. [more]

A healthy pullback

February 7, 2018
Region:
International
Analyst:
Marcos Arana, Matthew Luzzetti, Michael Hsueh
The House View - Snapshot
36
After a stellar 2017 and an even stronger January, risk assets have undergone a sharp pullback in the last week. Initially triggered by higher rates as markets repriced inflation expectations higher, the episode evolved into a technical spout of volatility exacerbated by programmatic strategies. The pullback is healthy, after a highly unusual stretch of market tranquility. [more]
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