The gathering storm

The global outlook is moving in a stagflationary direction.
— Inflation momentum has continued to build, leading to central bank tightening that will slow growth across the key economies.
— Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted key
commodity markets and supply chains [more]

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics Research, Matt Luzzetti, Chief US Economist and Mark Wall, Chief European Economist, discuss the world outlook 2023 as we find ourselves at a defining moment for the global economy. Inflation is running at multi-decade highs, central banks are pursuing their most aggressive tightening cycle in a couple generations, and a recession is now increasingly expected in the US and Europe. As 2023 nears, there is a growing consensus that it is shaping up will be the third-worst year for global growth so far in the 21st century, behind only the pandemic year in 2020 and the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009. [more]

Overall, was COP27 a success or failure? The answer likely depends on your expectations going into the conference. The event took place against a difficult geopolitical backdrop, rising inflation and an energy security crisis that some nations interpret as support for energy diversification strategies that align with fossil fuel growth. In a recent dbSustainability report the team discuss top 8 takeaways from COP27. [more]

The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar is about to start, so it is a good time to reflect on the relationship between the sporting world’s Greatest of All Time and remote work. The increasing popularity of remote work has disrupted traditional models of business and employment. There are shifting views of what work will look like in the future, so it is a topic that cannot be ignored. But, to make the most out of flexible remote work now, workers can learn from top athletes. [more]

In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The second episode dives into connectivity constellations and how optical/laser terminals could boost performance. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Bulent Altan, CEO of Mynaric and also an early SpaceX employee. [more]

In our latest edition of “Q&A with”, Luke Templeman, Thematic Research Analyst, shares his view on the implications of rising wage costs, greater political instability and higher interest rates for corporates. [more]

The next iteration of UNFCC’s Conference of Parties, COP 27 is taking place in Egypt. As part of the Global South and home to one of world’s most diverse marine life, the location of Sharm-El-Sheikh in Egypt is quite relevant to this year’s conference. The event serves as the United Nation’s (UN) annual Climate Change summit and is intended to bring ~200 countries together to accelerate action towards goals of the Paris Agreement (2015) and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. [more]

Amidst the backdrop of rampant food inflation, this year’s COP27 in the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh (November 6-18) will be critical. That is because food inflation has been stronger than overall inflation. In fact, in March the US hit an inflection point when food and beverages CPI outpaced broader CPI. This is not just a US issue. The food inflation problem is a global phenomenon. [more]

Perry Kojodjojo and Oliver Harvey from Deutsche Bank Emerging Market Research discuss the recently published EM Currency and Local Markets Handbook. The new and revitalised handbook covers over 30 local EM markets in detail, covering liquidity, market structure and regulations in FX, local bonds and IRS, as well as targeted descriptions of monetary policy and market participants. The Handbook is designed to be an essential tool for institutional and corporate clients in navigating an increasingly complex and fragmented EM regulatory and macro environment, with new sections on unconventional monetary policy by EM central banks, new markets such as Kenya and Pakistan and a discussion of the evolving EM market landscape. [more]

In recent weeks, markets have been very volatile as they digest announcements from global policymakers and central bank responses to persistently elevated inflation. In the latest episode of Podzept, Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, and Matthew Raskin, Head of US Rates Research, discuss their views on the outlook for Fed policy and the US yield curve. [more]

While the "Space" industry emerged many decades ago, public interest significantly diminished toward the latter part of the 20th century as entrepreneurs mostly avoided the sector due to high barriers to entry, regulation, and limited deployment opportunities.

Edison Yu, lead coverage of Global Space & Aerial Mobility, believes two developments can change this and ensure space will be the next frontier for limitless growth: 1) the emergence of a new "Space Race," both between industry titans (Musk vs. Bezos) and between nations (US vs. China/Russia), has captivated audiences around the world and 2) the deployment of mega constellations (Starlink, OneWeb, Amazon Kuiper) has facilitated massive investment in infrastructure and supply chains.

Read the new report ‘The Big Rocket Shortage’ to find out more. [more]

Emerging economies face an extremely challenging environment. Rising USD and EUR yields as the Fed and ECB raise policy rates quickly to try to stabilize prices; depreciating currencies, especially against the dollar, as a consequence; slowing growth; extreme climate events and the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine in the form of a further boost to food and fuel prices. [more]