Supply chain diversification: Europes investment patterns in Asia

Joey Chung, Mallika Sachdeva

Analyst:

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The diversification of supply chains is becoming an increasingly important theme for corporates. A series of economic and geopolitical shocks in recent years have exposed the vulnerabilities of concentrated supply chains, and are prompting conversations around the option set for corporates, particularly around China Plus One strategies. [more]

PRI Conference: Top 8 takeaways

October 24, 2023

Region:

Debbie Jones, Luke Templeman, Punyadip Cheema

Topic:

Sustainability

Analyst:

Konnichwa! We spent most of our first week of October at this year’s Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) Conference held in Tokyo, Japan (Oct 4-6th). This event is one of the leading global sustainability conferences as it attracts influential asset owners, leading asset managers, regulators and industry professionals. Our Top 8 takeaways below are based on insights from conference panels we attended and discussions with attendees. [more]

Video: The five weak links in the globalised economy

October 23, 2023

Region:

Analyst:

Adrian Cox

The modern world has not freed itself from distance and geography. The globalised economy is built on a web of five fragile and largely forgotten pinch points. [more]

Video: Latest US consumer price report

October 13, 2023

Region:

Analyst:

Justin Weidner

September's CPI report was released this morning. Please watch Deutsche Bank economist Justin Weidner and spokesperson Gary Ramsay debrief today's data. [more]

A cloudy mountain top

October 12, 2023

Region:

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

Analyst:

The House View - Snapshot

Recent months have seen a mounting case for a US soft landing as inflation has fallen without much stress in the labour market. Yet at the same time, the global economy is now being buffeted by several headwinds and the backdrop is fragile, with sovereign bond yields at multi-year highs across the world. [more]

Labour "power gap" to hurt corporate margins

October 9, 2023

Region:

Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga

Analyst:

Company margins may soon feel the pinch from rising labour power. Recent events, like Biden joining UAW picket lines and Trump's address in Detroit, highlight the wide 'power gap' between companies and their employees. This gap is likely to shrink this decade. A new research report by Olga Cotaga and Luke Templeman reveals this and several other factors. [more]

Q&A with Amy Yang

October 5, 2023

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Analyst:

Amy Yang

Q&A with

In a new ‘Q&A with’ our US economist Amy Yang speaks about her role, highlighting how economists analyse data and closely track the Fed’s communication to forecast economic conditions. Regarding the economy, she outlines the team’s anticipation of a mild recession in early 2024, even amidst an enhanced likelihood of a soft landing. [more]

The Future of Money

September 29, 2023

Region:

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure

Analyst:

The past decade has challenged our understanding of money as payment alternatives and new forms of currency entered our everyday lives. Digital assets such as Bitcoin have captured the spotlight, but we believe it will be central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that will prevail. And yet, even as the transition to digital payments continues, cash does not face extinction. [more]

Video: Gianpaolo Tomasi on cross-sectional mean reversion

September 28, 2023

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Analyst:

Gianpaolo Tomasi

In March 2021 we published a report introducing our cross-sectional mean reversion factor that has been traded out-of-sample since then (Bloomberg ticker: DBRPGERU). In this new report we expand on our previous work by showing how using daily returns more efficiently improves performance even when trading weekly and demonstrate how earnings dates can boost predictive power by avoiding trading against the post-earnings drift. We also introduce an approach to improve the signal using trading volume and propose a turnover control approach that can enhance capacity while preserving performance. [more]

Video: Deutsche Bank’s Chief US Economist breaks down the FOMC meeting

September 22, 2023

Region:

Analyst:

Matthew Luzzetti

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its two-day meeting today. Please watch Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti and spokesperson Gary Ramsay debrief the outcome. [more]

Six key AI themes you missed while you were at the beach

September 21, 2023

Region:

Adrian Cox, Galina Pozdnyakova

Analyst:

In their latest report, Adrian Cox and Galina Pozdnyakova take us through six important themes that began to emerge over the past few months, proving that issues around AI continue to be top of mind in all areas of the financial, political, and technological world despite a typically more relaxed summer pace. [more]

The History (and Future) of Recessions

September 20, 2023

Region:

Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid

Analyst:

The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]

Video: AI and six themes

September 19, 2023

Region:

Analyst:

Adrian Cox