What’s in the tails? Why the coming recession will be worse than expected

David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid, Peter Hooper

Analyst:

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We are undergoing a paradigm shift in macroeconomics. Consensus forecasts have been consistently wrong over the last decade, and over the last couple of years alone they underestimated the scale of the pandemic rebound, the inflationary impact of the stimulus packages, and the fact they weren’t transitory. [more]

Q&A with Matthew Luzzetti

July 11, 2022

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Matthew Luzzetti

In a new ‘Q&A with’ Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights on whether the US Economy is already in a recession, and if it isn’t when one is expected and how the Fed is likely to respond to the conflicting signals from inflation and growth. [more]

Video: Academic Insights

July 7, 2022

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Caio Natividade

dbInSights - public

The quant team's 'Academic Insights' report discusses the most relevant, recently published academic papers on various topics related to quantitative investing as sourced by Deutsche Bank Research analysts. The latest edition, which features over 70 studies and podcasts, includes climate research, digital assets, intangibles, inflation, tail risk hedging and diversification. Watch this latest video with Caio Natividade to find out what stands out. [more]

Rising Stars of Equity Research

July 7, 2022

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Corinne Blanchard, Krisztina Katai

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Corinne Blanchard and Krisztina Katai have been honoured as ‘Rising Stars of Equity Research’ by the Business Insider publication. [more]

Top-5 themes for H2

July 5, 2022

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Adrian Cox, Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Luke Templeman, Yi Xiong

We usually only predict our top themes once a year. But the extraordinary changes in the first six months of 2022 mean the second six months are shaping up to be very different to everyone’s expectations. So in this publication we zero-in on the five most important themes that we believe will impact the rest of the year. [more]

The gathering storm

June 24, 2022

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The House View - Snapshot

Analyst:

Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

The global outlook is moving in a stagflationary direction. Inflation momentum has continued to build, leading to central bank tightening that will slow growth across the key economies. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted key commodity markets and supply chains. [more]

M&A, Resilience amidst a slowdown

June 20, 2022

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Galina Pozdnyakova, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga

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Corporate Bank Research

With a tumultuous first half of 2022 almost over, we are making a contrarian call for the second half. Specifically, we believe that although M&A will slow compared with last year, it will be more resilient than the drop so far in 2022 would suggest. To support this, we have identified several post-covid themes that are motivating corporates and private capital to make acquisitions. [more]

Q&A with Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte

June 15, 2022

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Binky Chadha, Parag Thatte

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With so much activity currently in the global equity markets, we asked our #dbresearch colleagues Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte for their thoughts on rising recession fears, how much valuations and earnings need to adjust, and whether or not they believe investors are already positioned for a recession? [more]

Video: 26th Annual Leveraged Finance Conference

June 15, 2022

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Analyst:

Richard Phelan

dbInSights - public

Topics included the significant disruption caused by the Ukrainian invasion, energy inflation and rise in base rates, all contributing to diversion in credit spreads since the beginning of the year, but also still healthy demand conditions reported by many companies. [more]

Video: Finding Rich and Cheap in Fixed Income Markets

June 8, 2022

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Caio Natividade

dbInSights - public

In this video, Caio Natividade summarises our Value factor for interest rate markets. The research, first introduced in 2020 and now available as information-based strategy on Bloomberg, shows how reversion and fundamental valuations can be combined into one strategy that complements other traditional style factors. [more]

Default Study - 2022: The end of the ultra-low default world?

June 8, 2022

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Jim Reid, Karthik Nagalingam

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The 24th annual study finds that the last 12 months have seen us grind back down towards near zero defaults again for BB/Bs. [more]

Q&A with Mark Wall

May 27, 2022

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Mark Wall

In a new ‘Q&A with’ Mark Wall, Chief Economist Europe, shares his views on an immediate threat of contraction in Europe, how soon ECB will hike rates and how far ECB rates will rise. [more]

Q&A with Yi Xiong

May 23, 2022

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Analyst:

Yi Xiong