The long view in Emerging Markets – middle-income trap, demographics and economic growth

The sizeable fiscal gaps in 2020/21 caused by the corona pandemic – which, just at the federal government level, are reflected in record new borrowing of around EUR 218 bn and EUR 96 bn, respectively – are a harsh setback for ensuring long-term public debt sustainability. In this week’s debate on the federal budget Finance Minister Scholz assured that no fiscal action in response to the crisis would be more expensive than fiscal action. But for the next federal government this appraisal might also hold true – but then with respect to fiscal consolidation. [more]

During the last few weeks, the German Federal Foreign Office has issued more and more travel warnings for other EU countries on the grounds of rising COVID-19 infection figures. If infections continue to trend upwards or remain high during autumn and winter, the number of travel warnings for EU countries and regions will rise as well during the winter season of 2020/21. And unless policymakers take measures to mitigate the impact, the tourism industry, in particular travel agents in Germany and hospitality providers abroad, will be faced with a similar situation to a new lockdown in the coming weeks and months. Quick and uncomplicated access to reliable coronavirus tests might be an option to allow travelling during the pandemic. The test costs should be borne by the travellers themselves. Ultimately, corona-related health risks will have to be weighed against the impact of higher hurdles for travelling and their negative economic consequences. [more]

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on growth in the second quarter was dramatic, no doubt about it. But economic data, as well as the daily and weekly real-time indicators that are now being watched meticulously, show that most countries began to reemerge from the slump back in May. In Germany, production was down by “just” 11.5% year over year in June, after a drop of nearly 25% in April. [more]

The German export sector has had to cope with numerous challenges over the last few years. These include “homemade” problems, above all in the auto industry, but also the shift in US trade policy. Climate change has become an increasingly important issue, too; in fact, it implies massive changes. That is why the long-term trend in many manufacturing sectors appeared unclear even ahead of the coronavirus pandemic. Now, COVID-19 has compounded already existing uncertainties. From our vantage point, a number of reasons support our hypothesis that continental value chains are likely to gain importance. [more]

During the corona summer, Germans will probably travel less and for shorter periods of time than in former years. Destinations in Germany and in the neighbouring countries, which are only a car journey away, look set to benefit. In contrast, European holiday destinations which are usually reached by plane will see the number of tourists decline in 2020. Spain will probably be the main loser. Long-distance travel will not play a major role in 2020. The cruise boom is likely to come to an abrupt end. In 2020, the total amount spent by Germans abroad is likely to decline by 10-20%. Once the coronavirus crisis is over, climate and environmental regulation (in particular for the transport sector) will return as the main structural challenge for tourism. [more]

German households saved surprisingly little money during Q1; their bank deposits were only up by EUR 5.8 bn. In the lockdown month of March, deposits even declined by EUR 11.1 bn, as households withdrew a lot of cash due to the uncertain situation. During the current quarter, however, households will probably build up deposits substantially in order to prepare for potential income losses. By contrast, retail loans continued to increase strongly in Q1 and may cool down only in the medium term. [more]

Commission President von der Leyen presented the long anticipated Commission proposal for a EUR 750 bn European Recovery Instrument together with an upsized EU budget for the next seven years. The plan goes beyond the Franco-German proposal that surprised markets last week. It can be expected to cause heated debates in the European Council and meet fierce resistance from frugal EU members. [more]

European banks have taken a substantial initial hit from the corona crisis in Q1, but so far digested it relatively well. Nevertheless, more pain is surely to come. While revenues and costs were both down only mildly, loan loss provisions shot up and almost wiped out industry profits. Capital levels dropped quarter-over-quarter, yet less than feared as banks cancelled 2019 dividends. Balance sheets expanded by a record-breaking 10% compared to year-end due to growth in corporate loans, higher liquidity reserves at central banks and increased derivatives volumes. [more]

Public attention has shifted away from climate change as the coronavirus pandemic has spread. Nevertheless, mitigating climate change and making sure that the growing global population has access to climate-friendly energy remain among the key challenges of this century. These issues will still be on the agenda when the pandemic is over. It is therefore an encouraging sign that many policymakers and corporates have said they will not only take into account, but pay more attention to climate protection when re-opening the economy. The heated discussion about which instruments are best suited to ensure climate protection will continue for years to come, though. [more]

During March, the first month in which the coronavirus pandemic made itself felt in Europe, banks' balance sheets grew substantially. On the one hand, euro-area banks raised enormous amounts of liquidity from the ECB, other financial corporations and non-financial companies. On the other, they just kept a large part of that at the central bank or lent it to other banks and other financial corporations. In addition, banks extended markedly more credit to non-financial firms which likewise stacked up their liquidity buffers to prepare for weaker cash flows as a result of the looming massive recession. The crisis so far had no major impact on banks’ retail business and their holdings of government bonds. [more]

The government’s coffers are not bottomless. That is why any money spent on cushioning the impact of the corona crisis should be used as efficiently as possible to achieve the maximum positive impact or compensate for the damage caused by the lockdown. Unlike other sectors, such as hotels or restaurants, car producers in Germany were and are not directly affected by the lockdown. Car dealers have re-opened. Moreover, a car-scrapping bonus scheme will cause customers to bring forward purchases, with sales declining in the following year. In addition, high-wage earners in particular will benefit from the financial windfall. Car sales in Germany play only a limited role for German carmakers’ overall profitability. And finally, subsidies for e-cars already provide an incentive to include environmental considerations in car-buying decisions. [more]

The economic slump is taking its toll on the banking industry. For the major US banks, profits in Q1 more than halved compared to the prior year, as loan loss reserves jumped. Revenues declined moderately with weakness in interest income and fees and commissions partly compensated for by a jump in trading income. Deposits, loans and other assets surged because clients hoarded liquidity. Banks’ capital ratios fell only somewhat and they remain well capitalised. Banks in Europe may have faced similar trends overall but will probably have benefited less from the supportive trading environment and suffered more from declining capital ratios. They are also handicapped by their much lower starting level in terms of profitability. [more]