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German elections: Kitchen table polling stations are open

August 26, 2021
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Polls are in flux. The SPD – pulled up by popular frontrunner FM Scholz – has exploited the conservatives’ ongoing weakness and turned a seemingly hopeless endeavour into a neck-and-neck race. In parallel, the Greens are stumbling. In the midst of this volatile political atmosphere, postal voting has started. As most postal voters intend to cast their vote quickly, there is little time left for the faltering conservatives and Greens to regain voters’ support. [more]

More documents contained in "Germany Blog"

21 Documents
February 20, 2024
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1
Two large German industrial sectors have experienced significant losses in domestic production during the last few years: the automotive and the chemical industries. In the automotive industry, production level in Q4 2023 was 21% below the former peak reached in autumn 2017. Chemical output in Germany was 27% lower than at its the former peak.
Compared to the significant drop in domestic production, employment in both sectors has remained quite stable during the last few years. The number of employees in the automotive industry declined moderately between 2018 und 2022 but has stabilised since. Employment in the chemical industry was even only 2% below its peak at the latest reading.
In our view, production volumes in both sectors are unlikely to return to former peaks. Thus, we expect employment in these sectors to decline before long, as an adaptation to lower production volumes and probably also as a result of more automatisation and efficiency gains. [more]
February 13, 2024
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2
Production in the manufacturing industry in Germany dropped by 1.2% in 2023 in real terms. This was the second decline in a row (2022: -0.2%) and the fourth decline in the last five years. Thus, industrial output was roughly 9% below the record level of 2018. Since manufacturing output dropped significantly in both Q3 and Q4 2023 (-2.0% and -2.2% qoq respectively), 2024 starts with a significant negative statistical overhang. Sentiment indicators seem to have reached a bottom, but business expectations are still far in negative territory. The negative impact of the recent increase in interest rates on domestic industrial production will likely become visible with a time lag because companies have been able to partly compensate the downturn in new orders by working off the orders booked before 2023. We have revised our forecast for manufacturing production in Germany in 2024 to -2.5% down from -1.5%. In this report, we also look at the economic development in major industrial sectors in Germany. [more]
January 23, 2024
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3
Germany lags behind in digitalization. E-Government is a case in point. Historically, public projects are often based on complex coordination across many various entities. We think, switching from this traditional approach to a clear central governance is essential to implement a public cloud, to digitalize registers and offer digital services for citizens and businesses. Interestingly, Bavaria outperforms and seems to have a more central approach than other Länder. [more]
November 9, 2023
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5
The potential use of synthetic fuels (e-fuels) in the transport sector has been a controversial discussion topic for several years. Both proponents and opponents of e-fuels have arguments on their side. In our view, weighing up these arguments suggests that regulation should a priori allow for technological openness so that Hayek's “competition as a discovery procedure” is possible in the first place. E-fuels could be a solution for some applications in passenger car transport that are not (well) served by battery electric cars (BEV). They could help reduce CO2 emissions from new and existing vehicles. The biggest challenges for the use of e-fuels lie in availability, still-high costs and the low energy-conversion efficiency. [more]
October 19, 2023
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6
Production in major industrial sectors in Germany has developed very differently in recent years under the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and energy price shock. For example, manufacturing in electrical engineering rose by 18% compared with the start of 2015. In the chemical industry, there has been a 20% decline over the same period. The differences are not only cyclical, but also structural. In the future, it will be more important to distinguish between Germany as an industrial location and the German industry. [more]
March 31, 2023
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7
In the first edition of our Energy Transition Monitor, we take stock of the current speed of renewables rollout, e-car uptake, heat-pump installations, and energy infrastructure build-up (e.g., regarding hydrogen) in Germany. We then analyse existing bottlenecks for reaching envisaged targets for 2030. Finally, we provide an update of current policy action aimed at mitigating those bottlenecks, both at the EU and national level, and potential implications of these policy measures on investment spending (private and public). [more]
January 26, 2022
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8
Due to significant demand/supply imbalances as well as climate policy measures, energy prices were the main driver of consumer price inflation in Germany in 2021. In 2022 as a whole, prices might increase by more than 20% for gas on average and by more than 15% for electricity. In that case, higher gas and electricity prices would substantially boost Germany’s inflation rate in 2022 (by up to 1 percentage point). In the medium term, a more ambitious climate and energy policy will very likely continue to raise consumer price inflation. At least over the transition period, rising CO2 prices (via the national carbon levy or the EU-wide emissions trading system) will not only lead to a permanently higher price trend for fossil fuels (oil/gas heating, fuels) but also costs for electricity generation. Overall, this weakens the widespread argument to view energy price increases as temporary. [more]
November 19, 2021
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9
In the face of rapidly rising COVID-19 infection rates causing regional bottlenecks in intensive care units, the current caretaker federal government and heads of federal states agreed on further restrictions yesterday. From now on, the hospitalisation ratio in federal states will be the new single most important indicator to watch. It measures how many COVID-19 patients per 100,000 people have been hospitalised during the last 7 days. As soon as certain thresholds are exceeded, new restrictions will come into effect. In this Germany Blog, we explain the new thresholds and measures in detail and provide an economic assessment to illustrate the impact. [more]
August 23, 2021
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10
While the Conservatives’ position in the polls seems to be in free fall for now, the FDP has regained standing with the voters just in time for the federal election in September. According to current polls, only three-way party coalitions have a majority, hence, the Liberals could end up as the new kingmakers, clearly favouring a coalition with the Conservatives and the Greens (Jamaica) over a traffic-light coalition with the SPD and the Greens. But there are still five weeks to go and the election race is as open as ever. [more]
July 27, 2021
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11
The recent flood caused by heavy rain was among the most severe natural disasters hitting Germany since reunification. More than 170 people lost their lives and many private homes and public buildings, roads and municipal infrastructure were destroyed. Since the flooding occurred in regions with low industrial density, the expected negative impact on overall economic activity, in particular on industrial production, should be relatively limited. Still, the regional impact on agricultural production (such as wine-growing) might be significant. Some of the most recent polls already fully capture post-flood views. As expected, there is no big shift in voter preferences. The events will likely confirm voters' previous choices. [more]
June 21, 2021
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12
At last, the Conservatives revealed their 140-page election manifesto earlier this afternoon. The manifesto is centered on the key themes of stability and, as Laschet put it, “the triad of climate change, economic strength and social security” in a modernised state. The Conservatives (faithful to their name) thereby differentiate themselves from the Greens’ focus on faster change and transformation. We provide a summary of the key messages regarding EU, fiscal and climate policies in our note. [more]
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