Shipwrecked

Analyst:

Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

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Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. We are in the midst of a historic bursting of the bond bubble, and a once-in-a-generation equity revaluation, combined with a sustained flight into the USD. The latter has been driven by geopolitical consideration as well as the failure of the ECB and the BoE to act as decisively on inflation as the Fed. Our street-leading prediction of a US recession by end-2023 has become increasingly mainstream, and we also expect the Euro Area and German economy to contract by at least -2% and -3% respectively next year. [more]

Outlook for 2019: Growth to plateau, but not collapse

December 20, 2018

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This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's outlook for 2019 . Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, Italy, trade war etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes. [more]

US keeping solid global growth alive

November 15, 2018

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This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (US election, Brexit, Italy, etc.) and major risks in the rest of 2018. Find also our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes. [more]

Markets after the recent sell-off

October 16, 2018

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This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key ongoing/upcoming political developments (Brexit, Italy, US mid-term, etc.) and major risks in the rest of 2018. Find also our views on US macro and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. [more]

Mind the (political) hurdles

September 11, 2018

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We’re at the stage of the policy tightening cycle where history suggests a higher likelihood of accidents in financial markets. Recent events support that, with markets buffeted by negative headlines from Italy, Turkey, Argentina, and broader EMs. Although there are idiosyncratic risks in the above, they are being magnified by a persistent, if steady, Fed tightening cycle and an ECB that is tapering towards a QE standstill. Meanwhile Brexit and trade wars bubble along in the background. [more]

Tug of (trade) war

July 25, 2018

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Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody

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This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk and effects of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]

Trade war tensions

June 27, 2018

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Analyst:

Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody, Raj Hindocha

This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]

Supported global growth

May 22, 2018

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Analyst:

Himanshu Porwal, Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody, Raj Hindocha

After a year of strong and highly synchronised global growth, momentum undeniably slowed this year. This has raised concern over the growth cycle, and the potential impact on risk assets.
However, our global macro view remains positive and we still forecast the global economy to grow robustly this year. We have downgraded our 2018 forecast for the eurozone, which is balanced by an upgrade to our China forecast. In the US, our outlook is unchanged as fiscal policy begins trickling through the economy and the Federal Reserve continues to withdraw accommodation. [more]

Trade wars and more

April 23, 2018

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Marcos Arana, Quinn Brody

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Markets have been on their toes since the correction that started at end-January. Listless trading certainly reflects this malaise: major equity indexes have not suffered another sharp selloff but nevertheless remain near their year-to-date lows. While fundamentals remain robust, geopolitics and trade war fears, concerns over slowing global growth, and idiosyncratic issues in the tech sector have all weighed. [more]

Slow-burning issues

March 14, 2018

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Robust, broad-based global expansion. Synchronised growth across regions and economies, in many cases at above-trend levels. We expect global growth to accelerate to +3.9% this year, marginally above 2017, as fundamentals remain supportive. We expect the US and eurozone to continue growing above potential, but do not anticipate any further acceleration. In China, we expect growth to slow, and are more worried about inflation and financial risks than consensus. 2018 should mark the peak of the current cyclical expansion; growth should decelerate from 2019. [more]

A healthy pullback

February 7, 2018

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After a stellar 2017 and an even stronger January, risk assets have undergone a sharp pullback in the last week. Initially triggered by higher rates as markets repriced inflation expectations higher, the episode evolved into a technical spout of volatility exacerbated by programmatic strategies. The pullback is healthy, after a highly unusual stretch of market tranquility. [more]

The House View: Snapshot

January 23, 2018

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This edition reviews the global macro outlook, with 2018 likely marking the peak of the current cyclical expansion. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts [more]

The House View: Happy holidays

December 11, 2017

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