1. Research

Social cohesion top priority as no. of ICU patients drops sharply

4. Juni 2021
The third COVID-19 wave in Germany is ebbing. The number of ICU patients – one of the key parameters of the pandemic – peaked at the end of April, at above 5,100 cases. At the end of May the number was below 2,500. If the trend continues due to vaccinations and warm weather, the number of ICU patients will fall below 1,000 in mid-June. [mehr]

Weitere Dokumente von Jochen Möbert

82 Dokumente
17. Juni 2021
1
The demand for office space will be largely shaped by the development of home office over the decade. There is no doubt that remote work has the potential to reduce demand for office space substantially and uncertainty remains unusually high. But our projections show that even with a strong expansion of home office, demand for office space could remain high. We continue to expect that the traditional office will remain the hub of economic life. [mehr]
10. Juni 2021
2
Q2 GDP should be o.k., despite April’s little stumble. Strong external demand and depleted finished goods inventories suggest a strong bounce back once current supply constraints ease. Consumers’ economic outlook and income expectations are improving. Together with an expected normalization of the savings rate that should provide a strong underpinning for consumption growth. We stick to our Q2 GDP forecast of close to 2% qoq and 4% for the whole year. The rate of inflation has been rising sharply since the start of 2021. With price dynamics continuing to outstrip expectations and given the prospect of stronger economic recovery in the summer, we now expect the annual average CPI inflation rate to rise to 2.8% in 2021, monthly numbers could even touch 4%. [mehr]
7. Mai 2021
3
The catalysts for a strong expansion of the German economy during the summer half are falling into place: Global demand is picking up strongly and the vaccination momentum is finally accelerating. Given the slightly smaller than expected drop of Q1 GDP (-1.7%) and upward revisions to H2 2020, we have lifted our GDP forecast for 2021 from 3.7% to 4.0%. Meanwhile election polls are hanging firmly in the balance. The nominations of Annalena Baerbock and Armin Laschet as chancellor candidates have clearly helped the Greens to gain ground. The current shift in voters’ sentiment allows for a whole bunch of coalition options. [mehr]
28. April 2021
4
We compare the current debate with the discussion about the introduction of the computer in the 1980s. Then as now, positive and negative effects on a macroeconomic level could almost cancel each other out at first. Accordingly, we anticipate that the question of productivity is only likely to be answered in some years’ time. [mehr]
19. April 2021
5
After Berlin's rent cap was declared unconstitutional by the Federal Constitutional Court, Germany is discussing the consequences. Will there be a nationwide rent cap after the federal election in September? This is one of the most frequent and potentially most important questions for many landlords and tenants. [mehr]
25. März 2021
7
Single-family homes have recently been drawn into the discussion about suitable climate-policy measures in Germany. However, arguing about whether and to what extent single-family homes contribute to climate change or consume more resources than multi-family homes simply draws away the attention from the real energy and climate-policy challenges in the building sector. Moreover, the discussion underlines once again that calls for certain climate-policy measures often clash with how millions of people live or would prefer to live. [mehr]
24. März 2021
8
Our analysis suggests that the nationwide price cycle will come to an end this decade. Despite all the uncertainty, we believe the cycle is likely to end in 2024. The fundamental supply shortage should ease off in the coming years. The lower level of immigration during the pandemic is also a contributing factor. If the cycle does in fact end in 2024, we expect nominal house prices to decline for a short period of time based on comparable historical data. If house prices rise again at the historical average of approximately 2.5% per year following the correction phase, we could see an increase of around 24% over the decade, despite the interim price dip. This outlook also includes a look at the eleven German metropolitan regions. [mehr]
16. Dezember 2020
9
The COVID-19 crisis has intensified the lack of profitable low-risk investments, which is why numerous investors probably regard the German residential market as an attractive alternative to the bond markets. Rental returns have been trending downwards for ten years now, and the development looks set to continue until the spread between rental returns and low-risk bond yields has narrowed significantly further. [mehr]
10. Dezember 2020
10
The COVID cycle and vaccination progress will drive the economy in 2021. We expect that infection rates will not come down decisively before Q2. By summer vaccination numbers should reach critical mass. A strong recovery starting in Q2 should yield an annual GDP increase of 4.5% after a 5.5% drop in 2020.
All attention on the super election year 2021: Germany is facing federal elections and multiple state elections. Our baseline scenario is a conservative-green government, but coalition talks will significantly test the willingness to compromise on both sides.
(Also in this issue: global trade and exports, private consumption, labour market, equipment and other investment, the German housing market, public finances, inflation, German industry's corona losses) [mehr]
2. November 2020
11
Q3 GDP surprise: A rear mirror view – but obstacles right in front. With the partial lockdown during November, the economy will almost certainly see another negative quarter, even in an optimistic scenario where restrictions succeed in squashing new infections and will be completely abolished by the end of November. Prepare the German healthcare sector for regional bottlenecks – protect risk groups better: The number of patients in intensive care and hospital capacity is just as important as the number of new infections. We estimate that 400,000 acutely infected patients are the limit for intensive care units. (Also in this issue: inflation outlook, German labour market, corporate insolvencies, German auto industry, global construction industry, German corona policy, open borders in the EU) [mehr]
24. September 2020
12
We have lifted our GDP forecast for 2020 to -5.5% and see the economy expanding by 4.5% in 2021. An important factor is that the rebound during Q2 – when GDP contracted by 9.7% – turned out more dynamic than expected. The momentum carried over into July. Even with some likely short-term moderation in August, we now expect Q3 GDP to increase by 6.0% qoq. Together with a 2.5% expansion in Q4, this should result in an annual GDP drop of “only” 5.5%, compared to the 9% expected in early May at the height of the pandemic in Europe. The higher carry-over lifts our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, despite somewhat weaker momentum in H1 than expected earlier. (Also in this issue: labour market, bilateral exports, fiscal outlook 2020-22, German industry, the race for CDU leadership, and federal election prospects.) [mehr]
19.5.0