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Research Briefing: BRIC sovereign wealth funds: The external wealth of governments

September 24, 2010
BRIC FX reserve accumulation continues (apace). As far as the BRICs are concerned, FX reserve accumulation is increasingly difficult to justify in terms of “risk insurance“: all four BRIC governments are net foreign (currency) creditors. Even if private-sector debt is included, national balance sheets look strong as far as solvency and liquidity are concerned. The performance of the BRICs throughout the crisis has also demonstrated their resilience, if not in terms of growth, at least in terms of financial stability. [more]

More documents contained in "Further research articles"

55 (43-54)
April 11, 2008
43
Climate change constitutes a challenge for the global tourism industry. The result will be regional and seasonal shifts in tourist flows. There will therefore be winners and losers. The Mediterranean region will be one of the losers, while – among others – Denmark, Germany, the Benelux countries and the Baltic states may benefit. The impact of negative climate developments will be particularly strong if climate-sensitive tourism has major economic significance. In Europe this applies to Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Austria and Greece. At a global level, however, the tourism business will remain a growth sector. [more]
February 14, 2008
44
After four years of above-average growth the global economy is clearly slowing down. The US housing recession and high oil prices are dampening global economic growth, even though the substantial USD depreciation of the last two years, decisive and timely Fed action and the USD 150 bn fiscal package will prevent a US recession. Due to robust domestic demand and solid current account surpluses in many cases the emerging markets – contrary to previous shocks – are providing an element of stabilisation. Europe will be affected by the US slowdown with a lag while the strong currency continues to be a drag. [more]
July 27, 2007
45
The US current account has swelled to USD 811 bn, or 6.1% of GDP, at the last count. We do not believe that a deficit of this magnitude is sustainable in the long term. A reduction of the international imbalances still need not take place abruptly. After all, the US current account deficit is also the upshot of investment decisions in the surplus countries. A strengthening of domestic demand in Asia and stronger diversification efforts in the oil-producing countries aimed at reducing their reliance on oil revenues suggest that less capital will flow to the USA. The still fast-expanding trade in services also points to an improvement in the US current account in the longer term. Here, the USA is a frontrunner, which gives it a competitive edge. [more]
May 29, 2007
46
Global liquidity has become abundant over the past few years mainly owing to extremely accommodative monetary policies in the US, Euroland and Japan. Since this liquidity "glut" has barely shown up in consumer price inflation, it has likely contributed to asset price inflation. There are basically two scenarios for how global "excess" liquidity could be cut back over the medium to long term: (1) continued global monetary tightening or at least no monetary easing soon and (2) global nominal GDP expanding faster than the money stock over time. [more]
April 25, 2007
47
Countries with a high level of material prosperity are faced with the question of which priorities to set for the future and which objectives to target with their reform processes. One objective could be the happy variety of capitalism, which can be identified using the insights of happiness research. Countries of the happy variety are currently Australia, Switzerland, Canada, the UK, the US, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands. They are characterised by an array of commonalities such as low unemployment, a high education level, a high employment rate of older people and extensive economic freedom. [more]
March 27, 2007
Region:
48
Ageing does not directly impact the total shares of expenditures at the country level, although it will drastically affect the nature of demand within most consumption segments. In fact, economic growth is the main driver of change in the consumption structure, through rising levels of expenditures and shifts in relative prices. (Ageing is indirectly at play here through its effect on income distribution). Another important driver is societal transformation. Our projections show that, when all three drivers are factored in, transport, housing, health care and entertainment take larger expenditure shares at the expense of food.
The main household expenses will remain housing, transport, entertainment, and - still - food. [more]
May 30, 2006
49
Brazil has made substantial progress towards greater economic stability. A combination of greater macro-stability, increased investment and openness, and gradual economic reform will lead to higher medium-term economic growth. The natural resources sector stands to benefit disproportionately from the on-going structural changes in the world economy. Strong Chinese demand will provide Brazil with a great opportunity to increase exports and growth. High-tech niches where Brazil has achieved a competitive advantage will also benefit. If domestic structural reform continues and macroeconomic stability is maintained, the financial sector will be another "winner". [more]
March 20, 2006
50
Life expectancy and health spending have been increasing for decades the world over. This life extension trend is an important engine of growth: investment in education brings higher returns; lower mortality raises population growth. However, the speed and impact of the trend cluster are still underestimated: forecasts of life expectancy and the size of the health sector are probably still too low - making the need for adjustment in the political and business community greater than many people have thought. [more]
August 1, 2005
51
Human capital is the most important factor of production in today's economies - and education is an investment that generates higher incomes in future. The growth stars of the coming years identified in our introductory study base their success on major gains in human capital. The success stories of Spain and South Korea show that political changes can have a lasting impact on human capital. [more]
March 23, 2005
52
Substantiated, long-run growth forecasts are in the limelight following the New Economy disappointments and repeated crises in the emerging markets. With the help of "Formel-G", we identify the sources of economic long-term growth and generate forecasts for 34 economies until 2020. India, Malaysia and China will post the highest GDP growth rates over 2006-20 according to our "Formel-G" approach. Strong population growth, a rapid improvement in human capital and increasing trade with other countries allow average GDP growth of more than 5% per year in these three countries. Ireland, the USA and Spain are the OECD economies expected to grow most quickly. [more]
January 12, 2005
53
The political and economic impact of EU convergence will be unambiguously positive for Turkey, as it will benefit from continued EU-supervised reforms, increased economic stability and higher foreign investment flows. The banking sector in particular stands to benefit from enhanced stability and higher economic growth, and is likely to experience increased consolidation and foreign participation. This study is to depict plausible scenarios for the Turkish economy in the medium to long term, rather than predict at what point in time accession will actually take place. [more]
August 1, 2002
Analyst:
54
The internet presents new challenges in taxation. The imposition of a turnover tax on e-commerce is hampered by the difficulties involved in identifying the consumer. It is nearly impossible to apply the destination principle, which is standard practice internationally. In the taxation of profits, international companies might obtain new scope for optimising their tax burden. Both aspects may lead to erosion of the tax base. At present, however, the volume of e-commerce is still too small to trigger serious fiscal problems. [more]
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