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Vaccinating the global economy

May 25, 2021
Since our last House View publication in March, our overall view of the global economy remains broadly the same. An end to the lockdowns in the US and Europe should be conducive to strong growth in the months ahead, while central banks are still expected to remain on the sidelinesfor now as they seek more clarity on the outlook. [more]

More documents contained in "The House View - Snapshot"

33 Documents
September 9, 2021
1
The global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations. This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases. These inflation fears initially centred on the US, but the Euro Area now has its highest inflation in almost a decade as well. For now investors are still convinced, as is priced in, that inflation will be a temporary phenomenon that will mostly self-correct.  [more]
November 25, 2020
4
The global economic outlook has improved since September thanks to the positive vaccine news, and we now see global GDP returning to its pre-virus levels in Q2 2021. Significant risks around this forecast remain both to the downside (if the virus were to spread more severely this winter or a vaccine rollout were delayed) and the upside (if a vaccine rollout is quicker than anticipated). [more]
September 24, 2020
5
Over the summer months, the outlook for the global economy and financial markets has brightened. As such, we now see the global economy contracting by a smaller -3.9% this year, with global activity returning to its pre-virus level by the second half of next year, albeit with the major developed countries likely to take several more quarters to reach the same point. [more]
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