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World Outlook 2022-23: Dodging the Tempests

More documents from Peter Hooper

21 Documents
May 11, 2022
1
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year. [more]
May 11, 2022
2
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year. [more]
January 19, 2022
5
In a new report Peter Hooper, Head of Global Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, explain that in recent months the Fed has pivoted toward a more aggressive path of exiting from its current ultra-accommodative pandemic emergency policy stance. They highlight that their view has also become considerably more hawkish, with their baseline expecting liftoff in March, four total rate hikes this year, and a rapid drawdown in the balance sheet beginning in Q3. The central message of the note is that we could be in for an even bigger hawkish surprise in the months ahead. [more]
December 17, 2021
6
Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks with Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist discussing economic predictions over the next two years. They base their ominous predictions on several factors: Inflation is pushing 6% or more in Europe and the US while central banks continue quantitative easing. A new and more infectious strain of Covid is spreading rapidly as vaccination rates lag. Supply chains remain clogged with delivery times and transport costs near all time highs. Potential populist-driven political turmoil, climactic tempests, and geopolitical storms loom. [more]
June 7, 2021
7
This paper examines the potential for higher inflation and a return of boom/bust cycles over the next few years.
The report notes the very role of government in the economy is undergoing its biggest shift in 40 years manifested in the receding fear of inflation and rising levels of government debt that shaped a generation of policymakers. Replacing it is the perspective that economic policy should now prioritise broader social goals.
At its heart the research report debates whether inflation is transitory or the pursuit of these important social priorities by governments will mean inflation will have longer-term and far reaching implications for the health of the global economy. Either way, higher inflation is coming and policymakers are about to face their toughest battle in 40 years. [more]
March 24, 2021
Analyst:
9
A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve. In a recent updated World Outlook report, Deutsche Bank’s Global Economics team has raised its forecast for global growth in 2021 to nearly 7%, which is well above consensus. Here is why. [more]
March 24, 2021
10
David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist & Global Head of Research and Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics have just published an updated outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The report is titled ‘Goldilocks with Inflation Risk’ and outlines how Goldilocks could be about to enter the global economy as conditions appear just right for strong growth. [more]
April 6, 2020
11
We’ve witnessed an immense human tragedy as the covid-19 virus has spread around the globe. Amidst the awful numbers of people who have succumbed to the disease, we’re also now witnessing an incredibly painful economic downturn. In a new podcast episode where we look at the data, ten million Americans have made jobless claims over the last two weeks. We’re now seeing equally staggering figures come out of many other countries as economies are simply shut down. [more]
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