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English version of ˮNach der Sommerpause: US- und europäische Unternehmensanleihenˮ

September 5, 2018
It remains a macro world for credit, with no real concerns of a fundamental nature within the corporate bond universe. The problem is that the macro world has become increasingly complicated this year. At the start of 2018, when markets were extraordinarily becalmed, we did feel that 2018 would see the return of volatility and that credit spreads would widen in sympathy. The reality is that 2018 has certainly deviated from our roadmap even if spreads have migrated to roughly where we thought they would be at this stage of the year. [more]

More documents contained in "Further research articles"

56 (13-24)
July 31, 2015
As a key element of the new reform agenda for Greece stipulated at the latest eurozone summit, privatisation has become a major issue for the southern European country. However, privatisation should be a topic for other governments in the euro area, too, given the high public debt in many countries. Nevertheless, a look at the privatisation policies in selected countries shows different priorities. [more]
June 26, 2015
Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) increased sharply in the decade up to 2013, prior to a significant decline in 2014 and Q1 2015 against the backdrop of the Russia crisis. In terms of size the market is small in an international comparison, and concentration in certain countries and sectors is large. Macro stability and adequate legal rights are important factors for market development, and a large and diversified source of demand is a key ingredient. Pension system counter-reforms in CEE may be counterproductive in this respect. [more]
April 24, 2015
There are good reasons to think that the revival in African growth over the last decade has been based on much more than the super cycle in commodities and demand from China. Over the next decade, however, the region’s centre of economic gravity is likely to shift towards the less resource-dependent economies in East Africa. East African countries are economically more diverse and beginning to form a relatively large and well-integrated regional market. Therefore, beyond the likely improvement in their terms of trade, they appear better-placed to deliver the structural economic transformation that will be needed to create jobs for the fast-growing working age population. [more]
April 14, 2014
What about agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa? Is it important to develop the sector or should efforts focus elsewhere? We argue that investments in agriculture and agribusiness are needed and that, ensuring efficient and sustainable agricultural production, they can drive economic growth and poverty reduction as well as fulfil both domestic and global demand for agricultural products. SSA offers both huge agricultural potential and fast-growing markets and there is increasing investor interest along the whole food supply chain. Challenges remain in terms of infrastructure, trade, skills and financing but there is increased commitment from governments and other partners for a sector with strong growth opportunities. [more]
November 13, 2012
Is there a global rush for farmland? Which countries are of interest, to whom, and what are the main drivers? Can it contribute to food security? What are consequences for host countries? We discuss in this paper risks and opportunities associated with foreign investment in farmland as well as ways forward - at a time when there is a strong case for private investment in agriculture. [more]
October 18, 2012
We expect the Asian frontier markets (AFMs) to be on a solid and accelerating growth path over the next five years, with real GDP growth potentially rising to 7-8% annually. All of the countries are expected to be members of the WTO by 2017. Trade at the regional and international levels is expected to deepen and drive growth in these countries. There are some risks to this constructive outlook such as natural catastrophes, political instability or even risks that could arise from rising interdependence with the global economy. Beyond these immediate risks, there are important challenges to tackle such as poverty reduction and protection of the environment and the national heritage. Improvement on these fronts will help the AFMs maintain their attraction for FDI flows. Finally, economic reform will need a more commercially-driven banking sector and financial markets, as well as a robust regulatory regime. [more]
May 2, 2012
Deposits are the most important source of funding for European banks, providing about 60% of the total. At the same time, private-sector deposits tend to be less volatile than other funding instruments. The importance of deposits is set to increase even further in the medium term because of new regulatory requirements and higher levels of risk aversion at banks. Boosting deposit volumes could enable moderate growth in bank assets and thus also an increase in lending to the private sector over the coming years. However, this would require that households hold a larger share of their savings in the form of deposits and invest a smaller proportion in insurance policies. [more]
May 2, 2012
Europe is adopting a new approach: economic policy coordination in the EU and the eurozone has undergone fundamental reform over the last two years. Now it is conducted via three pillars that address general economic policy, fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances. However, disruption is still caused by exemptions, conflicting objectives and time inconsistencies. The new rule book will only be able gain a good reputation going forward if it is applied rigorously. The pressure of the capital markets will remain a key driver of reform in this regard. [more]
January 20, 2012
The US car market is recovering from its deep crisis. Unit sales and production are likely to increase further in 2012 und 2013. In the medium term, previous record levels will be reached again or even exceeded. German producers should benefit from this development. Their market share in light vehicle sales will grow further. This is due to the attractive product range and the bolstering of production facilities in the US. Diesel and hybrid vehicles will expand their market shares in the US over the next few years. Growth in the diesel market in particular would benefit German companies. [more]