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Financial assets of German households: More diversified than their reputation

October 19, 2018
Region:
German households hold a higher share of their savings in bank deposits than their French or British peers. But their portfolios are more diversified than perception suggests if all low-risk/low-return investments are taken into account. They invest meaningfully in stock markets, both directly and indirectly. The recent upward trend though may be driven by the low interest rate environment. In Q2, household lending in Germany continued to grow dynamically at 3.8% yoy, driven solely by mortgage loans. However, mortgage growth has not increased much recently despite the benign economic situation and booming real estate markets. Consumer loans declined for the first time in five years. Meanwhile, deposits saw exceptionally large inflows, with maturities shortening further. [more]

More documents contained in "Germany Monitor"

97 (85-96)
September 15, 2011
Region:
Analyst:
85
2010 saw the establishment of Germany's Stability Council, a joint body representing the Federation and the Länder with a mandate to avert serious budget problems. At the third meeting of the Council in late May 2011 it wasted no time in formally determining the existence of a looming budgetary emergency in the four Länder of Berlin, Bremen, Saarland und Schleswig-Holstein. These four states have until mid-October to devise five-year restructuring programmes mapping out how they intend to eliminate their budget imbalances. What does this mean for federal and Länder fiscal policy in practice? And how is this to be viewed against the backdrop of the new debt brakes to be installed as of 2016 and 2020, respectively? How does this approach to more sustainable financial planning and greater coordination compare with efforts at the EU level? [more]
July 13, 2011
Region:
Analyst:
86
The German textile and clothing industry has experienced a dramatic structural change in the last few decades. Competitive pressure has led, on the one hand, to declining domestic production and, particularly in the case of labour-intensive products, to the transfer of production abroad. On the other hand, firms are concurrently concentrating more on technically demanding textiles, innovative products and strong brands, and are orienting themselves more internationally. [more]
May 27, 2011
Region:
Analyst:
87
The financial situation of Germany’s Länder, or constituent federal states, is often overshadowed by the situation of the Federation and the municipalities. In the course of this year DB Research plans to publish a series of articles on various topics pertaining to the Länder and their finances. This launch study aims to highlight the complex financial relations between the Federation and the Länder as well as the latter’s limited autonomy. The Länder are allowed to make largely autonomous decisions solely in respect of borrowing; capital market financing has gained considerable significance for a number of them. The scope of the financial equalisation system and the judgements handed down by the Federal Constitutional Court ensure the practical anchoring of the solidarity principle, which is tantamount to a joint liability system with a bail-out guarantee. More Länder autonomy – partly by means of a surcharge on income tax – would make sense. The creation of the Stability Council and a debt brake at Länder level has for the first time produced a preventive instrument for timely corrective action in the event of budget imbalances. [more]
March 15, 2011
Region:
88
Of course it is important to keep close tabs on the path of inflation going forward – especially in view of a volatile oil price – and the ECB has spoken also in this context of its “strong vigilance”. Yet an inflation rate of 2% or perhaps 2 ½% in the coming months largely represents a reversion to the normal pattern following the recession-induced lows of the past two years, driven mainly by oil and food prices. In any event, on the assumption that food and oil prices return to normal our DB Research inflation model forecasts no dramatic surge in inflation. We are aware, though, that some of the structural changes of the past decades may have reduced the meaningfulness of the forecasts produced by such a model. [more]
January 4, 2011
Region:
89
Our forecast of 2% GDP growth in Germany in 2011 is indeed quite optimistic. Moreover, there are two articles in this issue of Current Issues which demonstrate that the financial and economic crisis has not dampened growth potential in Germany. On the one hand, no structural imbalances developed prior to the crisis. On the other hand, in particular the labour market reforms and successful company restructuring over the last decade have ensured that the German economy is in excellent shape on an international comparison. The adjustment processes had, however, resulted in weak growth in household income. This could now improve. Private consumption is expected to grow by almost 1 ½% p.a. on a medium-term horizon. This would, however, be a sustainable performance that is not based on debt and real estate bubbles – in sharp contrast with the considerably higher consumption growth in several countries before the crisis. [more]
January 29, 2009
Region:
91
For the first time in five years Germany is back in recession. Economic output has been on the decline since the second quarter of 2008. The financial markets crisis and the global economic downturn will weigh heavily on growth in 2009. Gross domestic product will continue to contract in real terms at least until the middle of this year. The loss of major sales markets and the surge in the euro – even though it has retraced slightly – will likely cause exports to decline markedly in real terms for the first time since 1993. Shrinking foreign demand together with declining profits in many sectors will lead to investment in plant and equipment contracting by 10%. Despite fiscal stimulus packages private consumption is scarcely likely to increase by more than a tad again in 2009 in the face of significantly falling employment and a rising savings ratio. [more]
October 2, 2008
Region:
92
Gross domestic product is less and less often used as the sole measure of a country's progress. Broader measures of wellbeing are moving centre-stage. Many theories of societal progress use similar variables, which tend to develop hand in hand: life satisfaction, freedom, trust, education, income, employment, government effectiveness, the quality of democracy, corruption reduction, tolerance, participation and innovation. While Scandinavian countries are in the lead in many aspects, Germany has room for improvement, particularly in terms of education, employment, government effectiveness, corruption and the quality of democracy. To achieve sustainable progress all sectors of society must be involved: federal, state and municipal policy-makers, businesses and individual citizens. [more]
February 5, 2008
Region:
93
Recent progress on budget consolidation notwithstanding, there is still no consistent focus in Germany on higher-quality public finances, on either the expenditure or revenue side. What is more, the institutional fiscal policy framework is not state-of-the-art. In this paper, which also features an article by invitation from the Federal Ministry of Finance, we examine other countries’ experience in improving the quality of their public finances and discuss the conditions for political success – on both the federal and state level and EU-wide. [more]
January 7, 2008
Region:
94
Happy regions in Germany share many things in common: they all score well not only in terms of life satisfaction, but also with regard to trust in fellow citizens, state of health, unemployment, birth rate and income. This is in line with DB Research’s analysis at country level. The regions of Donau-Iller, Ostwuerttemberg, Osnabrueck and Hamburg-Umland-Sued achieve particularly good scores. There are no urban agglomerations in the uppermost ranks, though. The east German regions bring up the rear in this ranking. Our analysis suggests that well-being can be shaped and fostered on a regional/decentralised basis with a comprehensive policy approach. [more]
September 27, 2007
Region:
95
With Germany's Grand Coalition two years into its first term, it is time for a midway review of what the government has achieved so far and a look at what the second half of the legislative period might bring. The Grand Coalition still lacks assertiveness in its economic and social policy. Reforms of corporate and investment income tax have been addressed only half-heartedly; the tax landscape is a work in progress. Structural energy and environmental policy reforms will be launched. The higher cost of environmental awareness should be another reason to lighten the tax and contributions load. [more]
July 6, 2007
Region:
96
The succession gap in Germany’s Mittelstand (small and medium-sized enterprises, or SMEs) is overstated. Attractive businesses have no difficulty finding new owners these days. However, with succession solutions outside the proprietor families on the increase, the successful, typically German (family) business structure could start to crumble. Might this also impair the German Mittelstand’s business capital – high flexibility coupled with organically evolved trust? In the long term many SMEs are looking at a bright future. Crucial to this – besides the efficient organisation of generation change – are new forms of cooperation and modern financing instruments. A better political environment for business start-ups and a more open-minded attitude to the immigration of business talent would strengthen the entrepreneurial landscape as a whole. [more]
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