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Only a technical recession? It is all about risks!

August 19, 2019
Region:
We see Germany in a technical recession, as we expect another ¼% GDP drop in Q3. Our forecast for 2019 is now 0.3%. Given no indication for a rebound we lowered our 2020 forecast to 0.7%. We acknowledge these revisions do not properly account for the recent accumulation of risks. Given the increasingly fragile state of the global economy, the realization of one or more risks could easily push the economy into a completely different scenario, where growth revisions of a few tenths of a percentage point will not be sufficient. (Also in this issue: German automotive industry, chemical industry, house prices, corporate lending, the view from Berlin, digital politics.) [more]

More documents from Jan Schildbach

65 (61-65)
June 25, 2008
Region:
63
European banks have become considerably more international over the past few years, in terms of both the structure of their revenues and of their shareholders. In this context particular emphasis has been placed on strengthening the European business outside the home market, with the home market share in total revenues falling as a result – at the 20 largest European banks e.g. by 4 percentage points since 2001 to less than half. By contrast, as much as one-quarter of total revenues came from the rest of Europe in 2007 (2001: 18%). [more]
April 22, 2008
Region:
64
Recent market turmoil and its consequences will negatively impact the earnings of European banks for a considerable time. This reverses a long period of improvements in profitability and efficiency. But: the current environment should not distract from the trends that have favourably shaped the structure of the industry for the last 10 years and will continue to do so: consolidation, internationalisation, convergence and increasing specialisation. In this study, we consider to what extent these trends are going to further shape the banking sector in the foreseeable future. [more]
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