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Only a technical recession? It is all about risks!

August 19, 2019
Region:
We see Germany in a technical recession, as we expect another ¼% GDP drop in Q3. Our forecast for 2019 is now 0.3%. Given no indication for a rebound we lowered our 2020 forecast to 0.7%. We acknowledge these revisions do not properly account for the recent accumulation of risks. Given the increasingly fragile state of the global economy, the realization of one or more risks could easily push the economy into a completely different scenario, where growth revisions of a few tenths of a percentage point will not be sufficient. (Also in this issue: German automotive industry, chemical industry, house prices, corporate lending, the view from Berlin, digital politics.) [more]

More documents from Eric Heymann

114 (109-114)
September 3, 2013
Region:
109
We have lifted our forecast for 2013 GDP growth in Germany from 0.1% to 0.5%. This is not based on a more bullish assessment of H2's growth dynamics, though. Our call results instead from the growth surge due to one-off effects in Q2 (0.7% yoy) and from revisions to the 2012 performance as these produced a smaller statistical underhang and thus lead to a higher annual average for 2013. [more]
January 20, 2012
Analyst:
110
The US car market is recovering from its deep crisis. Unit sales and production are likely to increase further in 2012 und 2013. In the medium term, previous record levels will be reached again or even exceeded. German producers should benefit from this development. Their market share in light vehicle sales will grow further. This is due to the attractive product range and the bolstering of production facilities in the US. Diesel and hybrid vehicles will expand their market shares in the US over the next few years. Growth in the diesel market in particular would benefit German companies. [more]
July 13, 2011
Region:
Analyst:
111
The German textile and clothing industry has experienced a dramatic structural change in the last few decades. Competitive pressure has led, on the one hand, to declining domestic production and, particularly in the case of labour-intensive products, to the transfer of production abroad. On the other hand, firms are concurrently concentrating more on technically demanding textiles, innovative products and strong brands, and are orienting themselves more internationally. [more]
July 4, 2011
Analyst:
112
CCS is only one pillar in international climate protection policy, but certainly an important one. However, it currently does not seem likely that this pillar will be able to bear its load as planned for the coming two decades. Without CCS, though, the 2°C target would be in even greater jeopardy than it already is. Politicians’ general commitment to CCS and the realisation that the technology can make a valuable contribution to climate protection must therefore be followed by action: first and foremost, further research must be carried out and, second, price signals for CO2 would be required for its implementation. [more]
June 1, 2010
Analyst:
113
The world’s water markets are confronted with major challenges. The increase in the world's population and higher incomes in developing countries and emerging markets are going hand in hand with a rise in demand for food, energy and other goods. This is resulting in increased demand for water. Climate change will amplify many water-related problems and create new ones. We put the annual investment required in the global water sector at about EUR 400-500 bn. Governments will not be able to raise the funding needed on their own. For this reason, we believe it makes sense for governments and the private sector to cooperate more closely. Makers of “water technologies” will have huge sales potential awaiting them in the coming decades. We have used a scoring model to rank the attractiveness of various countries for investments in the water industry. Among the economies that ranked best are many countries from the Middle East, but also the heavily populated countries of China and India as well as the US and Germany. In principle, though, all countries require a substantial amount of investment in the water sector. [more]
April 11, 2008
114
Climate change constitutes a challenge for the global tourism industry. The result will be regional and seasonal shifts in tourist flows. There will therefore be winners and losers. The Mediterranean region will be one of the losers, while – among others – Denmark, Germany, the Benelux countries and the Baltic states may benefit. The impact of negative climate developments will be particularly strong if climate-sensitive tourism has major economic significance. In Europe this applies to Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Austria and Greece. At a global level, however, the tourism business will remain a growth sector. [more]
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