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EU elections countdown #4: What about Germany?

May 6, 2019
Region:
The May European Parliament elections could see Germany's conservative CDU/CSU and Social Democrats lose a substantial share of votes compared to the last round in 2014, whereas the Greens could overtake the SPD and become the second strongest party. Compared to European peers, the appeal of the far-right AfD to German voters remains far more limited. Still, the AfD could expand its share and rank fourth, followed by the Liberals and the far-left Leftist party. Shifts of voters' support between centrist parties will not have a substantial impact on Germany's generally pro-European stance. However, these parties still represent different views on the future of the EU, e.g. regarding further EMU deepening. [more]

More documents contained in "EU Monitor"

87 (73-84)
August 2, 2011
Region:
73
Europe on the way to becoming a transfer union? The euro rescue packages - and the ECB’s involvement in the crisis - are reputed to be the forerunners of a transfer union between the euro countries. However, for the time being these are mainly government guarantees, the failure of which cannot be taken for granted. The EU is even further away from systematic financial equalisation of the euro countries. Nevertheless, continuing macroeconomic tensions could increase the need for transfers - and further inflame political tensions. [more]
June 28, 2011
74
The world trade regime has reached an historic crossroads. Conclusion of the Doha Round this year could give global trade a significant boost. If the negotiations break down, in the medium term the international community faces the prospect of a relapse into tit for tat in trade policy. To bring the Doha Round to a successful conclusion political leadership is necessary – in the big emerging markets as well as in the US and EU. The former also stand to reap substantial gains from reciprocal market liberalisation. [more]
June 9, 2011
75
The financial crisis dealt international banking a serious blow. This paper reviews 1) the extent to which financial markets have become global in recent years as well as the damage inflicted on cross-border linkages by the financial crisis, 2) the reasons for the internationalisation process and 3) prospects for international banking in the “new-normal” environment. Apart from market developments, this reflects a new focus in the political and regulatory debate aimed at increasing the – mostly domestic – grip on the banking industry. [more]
September 17, 2010
Region:
76
The responsibility to manage volatility in agriculture is increasingly in farmers’ hands and they will need to rely more heavily on market-based tools. All in all, public policy could be most useful in increasing the risk management ability of farmers. Any extension of the public safety net will reduce the incentives for farmers and other agents along the food supply chain to manage their risks effectively through derivatives, private insurance or on-farm strategies like production diversification. Policies need to empower farmers to take their own risk management decisions and to have access to a diversity of instruments and strategies. More direct interventions are likely better kept as a means of last resort and restricted to measures which do not act at the expense of the rest of the world or of environmental sustainability. [more]
August 2, 2010
Region:
Analyst:
77
Financial market size: Traditional centres lose market shares, emerging markets up-and-coming. US and EU financial markets continue to provide around three-quarters of global financial services, albeit, after the crisis, at substantially lower overall levels of market activity in many market segments. Emerging financial markets, especially in Asia, have grown strongly in past years and are set to accelerate their catch-up process. [more]
July 12, 2010
Region:
78
The euro-area countries urgently need to slash their debt and they will have to find new ways to address this task in the process. Germany’s debt brake is an intelligent concept for achieving a long-term reduction in public debt that could also be remodelled to fit the conditions in other euro countries. National debt brakes could help cut public debt on a long-term horizon without jeopardising the growth prospects of the euro-area economies. [more]
June 22, 2009
Region:
Analyst:
79
Five years after the Ecofin Council reached agreement on the Savings Taxation Directive, the European Commission has submitted a proposal on its extension. The prevailing political climate for more cooperation and exchange of information between the States has improved significantly in recent months. A flurry of new bilateral agreements, initiatives at OECD level and further EU proposals for directives underscore the momentum that has gathered here. Negotiations on amendment of the Savings Taxation Directive will presumably not drag on again. [more]
June 15, 2009
80
The ongoing global financial crisis, with its historic dimensions, will have a lasting impact on the banking sector. It will become a less "fashionable" and even more heavily regulated industry with greater state involvement, increased investor scrutiny and substantially higher capital levels. This will lead to lower growth, lower profits and lower volatility for banks than during the past few decades – a trend that is exacerbated by the expected lack of major growth drivers, at least for some time. [more]
June 4, 2009
81
Ever since the global financial crisis spilled over to the real economy, the WTO and the World Bank have reported huge increases in protectionist measures, including non-tariff barriers to trade and the abuse of anti-dumping measures, subsidisation of national industries or, very lately, calls to favour domestic products and companies, and restrictions on international capital flows or immigration. These factors threaten to unleash a spiral of protectionism that perhaps may not choke off the global recovery, but it will partly delay its progress. Therefore, shoring up open markets and free trade is the next major challenge in a globally coordinated drive to cope with the crisis. [more]
May 12, 2009
Region:
82
On May 1, 2004 the European Union was enlarged by ten new Member States. Their political and economic integration brought growth in trade, economic output and employment – but also in economic connectivity and mutual interdependence. As a result, the global economic and financial crisis has triggered serious economic slumps in some of the new EU members. It is now time to take initial stock of integration and turn to consideration of the outstanding issues. [more]
November 28, 2008
83
The Asian crisis 1997/98, the launch of the euro in 1999 and the global financial crisis 2007/8 have stimulated monetary cooperation in East Asia and debate about an Asian Monetary Union (AMU). The success story of the euro can serve as a role model but special features in East Asia have to be taken into account. Given the current heterogeneity of Asian countries the exchange rate orientation will remain dominated by a mixture of dollar-pegged and (managed) floating schemes for the time being. The introduction of a single currency requires strong political will as well as the building of institutions, a legal framework and trust. Therefore, it is likely to take at least another two decades before AMU can be launched. [more]
October 22, 2008
Analyst:
84
Sovereign wealth funds are headed for a new state of normality and set to be recognised as institutional investors like many others. With their commitment to the Santiago Principles on greater transparency and robust governance, they have made a strong and credible commitment to financial objectives. Their important and constructive role as investors during the financial crisis has earned them additional credibility. Eyes are now on the recipient countries to present guidelines for open and more uniform investment conditions. Policy efforts should focus on bringing OECD guidelines to fruition, and ensuring that they are adhered to worldwide. [more]
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