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Only a technical recession? It is all about risks!

August 19, 2019
Region:
We see Germany in a technical recession, as we expect another ¼% GDP drop in Q3. Our forecast for 2019 is now 0.3%. Given no indication for a rebound we lowered our 2020 forecast to 0.7%. We acknowledge these revisions do not properly account for the recent accumulation of risks. Given the increasingly fragile state of the global economy, the realization of one or more risks could easily push the economy into a completely different scenario, where growth revisions of a few tenths of a percentage point will not be sufficient. (Also in this issue: German automotive industry, chemical industry, house prices, corporate lending, the view from Berlin, digital politics.) [more]

More documents contained in "Focus Germany"

74 (73-74)
May 19, 2008
Region:
73
Female and male participation in most walks of life are unequal today, either due to lack of opportunity or by choice. Along which dimensions are changes likely in Germany by 2020? Looking forward, we need to find some answers, in order to make the right decisions. We therefore examine the interactions between women and future structural changes, such as population ageing, a growing project economy, increasing knowledge intensity and fast-spreading virtual connectedness. We develop a plausible future, for women, and shaped by women, and pinpoint implications for government and corporations. [more]
October 3, 2007
Region:
74
Germany faces historic challenges. The continuing structural shift towards a knowledge-based economy, fresh competition from Asia and other parts of the world, rapid ageing, tight fiscal constraints and global climate change are the most prominent examples. To develop future-proof strategies, politicians and businesses must take a look at the future interaction of these forces. With an innovative scenario analysis we therefore sketch the directions in which Germany could conceivably develop up to 2020. The most plausible of these future scenarios is the "Expedition Deutschland". [more]
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